Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #28,095 of 84,120 nationally
Miller Park Eviction Risk: Moderate , Lynchburg
Tract 51680000700 · Lynchburg city, VA · pop 2,918 · neighborhood within 0.3 mi
Census tract 51680000700 covers part of the Miller Park area of Lynchburg, VA, and scores 5.3/10 on landlord eviction risk. It is home to 2,918 residents. Severe burden reaches 39%. Those are renters paying half their income or more, and that is where non-payment filings originate.
Risk score
5.3
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 38%
Stable renters 23%
Owners 39%
Tract context
Occupied units1,234
Renter share61.4%
SVI overall0.90
Poverty rate25.1%
Median income$34,459
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
96
th percentile
Very High
Within county
96
th percentile
Very High
Within state
83
th percentile
High
Geographic context
Risk heat across Lynchburg and the region
Centroid at 37.4033, -79.1620 · click any tract to drill in
Why Miller Park scores 5.3
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Lynchburg
4.0
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.1
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
25.1% poverty · this tract
6.3
Supply constraint
$929 rent vs county FMR
2.7
Rent control risk
Inherited from Lynchburg
1.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Lynchburg
3.0
Housing court bias
Inherited from Lynchburg
3.5
How Miller Park compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 90
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 85%Socioeconomic
- 71%Household composition
- 75%Racial/ethnic minority
- 93%Housing & transportation
Historical context · 1930s redlining
HOLC grade: C: Definitely Declining
This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade C meant mixed-race / working-class neighborhoods rated as risky. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.
- 0%Grade A
- 3%Grade B
- 50%Grade C
- 0%Grade D · redlined
Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 657Total filings over 4 yrs
- 21.56%Avg annual filing rate
- 23.0%Peak (2016)
- 190Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings climbed 16% over the past 4 months.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 25.4%Housing insecurity
- 20.0%Utility-shutoff threat
- 34.5%Food insecurity
- 36.8%SNAP enrollment
- 18.2%Transit barriers
- 14.0%No health insurance
- 22.3%Frequent mental distress
- 42.7%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Miller Park
62% of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, well above the Lynchburg City average of 43.8%. The dominant input is court filing pressure at 9.1/10. Food insecurity runs 34.5% against 17.8% nationally.
On the softer side, rent-regulation exposure reads 1.5/10. Annualized rent equals 32% of average household income of $34,459, past the 30% affordability line, which thins the margin any screening standard has to work with.
The poverty rate is 25%, which in this model reads as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment. Inability to pay a utility bill runs 20.0% against 9.2% nationally. Utility arrears usually lead rent arrears by a month or two. It sits 1.1 points above the Lynchburg City average of 4.2.
Running cool, supply constraint reads 2.7/10. The filing record is not thin: 657 evictions over 4 years of observation. Average gross rent is $929, 13% below the Lynchburg average.
The worst year on record was 2016, when 23.0% of renter households were served.
All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.
Frequently asked
About tract 51680000700
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51680000700?
Census tract 51680000700 in the Miller Park neighborhood scores 5.3/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51680000700?
Median gross rent is $929/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 62% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51680000700?
25.1% of residents in tract 51680000700 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 2,918.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51680000700?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 90th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 85th, household 71th, minority 75th, housing 93th.
Q5
Is tract 51680000700 considered part of Miller Park?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51680000700 fall within Miller Park (neighborhood centroid within 0.3 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51680000700?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 657 eviction filings across 4 validated years in tract 51680000700 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 21.56% of renter households, peaking at 23.0% in 2016. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 51680000700 struggle to pay rent?
About 25.4% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 20.0% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 51680000700 compare to Lynchburg overall?
Tract 51680000700 scores 5.3/10, higher than the parent city of Lynchburg at 3.9/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Lynchburg eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Q9
Was tract 51680000700 historically redlined?
Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of C. 0% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Lynchburg
Top eight tracts in Lynchburg ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · VA
Tinbridge Hill
5.3
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
Diamond Hill
5.3
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
College Park
5.3
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
Woodbine Village
5.3
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
Winston Ridge
5.2
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
Westend
5.1
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
Cornerstone
4.8
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
Lower Rivermont
4.6
/ 10 · Moderate
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