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Neighborhood · Ranked #28,095 of 84,120 nationally

Woodbine Village Eviction Risk: Moderate , Lynchburg

Tract 51680000204 · Lynchburg city, VA · pop 3,824 · neighborhood within 0.5 mi

With a score of 5.3/10, tract 51680000204 in the Woodbine Village area of Lynchburg, VA reads moderate for landlord eviction risk. The severe-burden share is 44%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment.

Risk score
5.3
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 28% Stable renters 28% Owners 44%
Tract context
Occupied units1,478
Renter share56.4%
SVI overall0.49
Poverty rate28.3%
Median income$47,275

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
50 th percentile
Rank, 50th percentileLowHigh
#1 of 1 tracts In Woodbine Village
Moderate
Within parent city
91 th percentile
Rank, 91st percentileLowHigh
#3 of 23 tracts In Lynchburg
Very High
Within county
86 th percentile
Rank, 86th percentileLowHigh
#4 of 23 tracts In Lynchburg city
High
Within state
83 th percentile
Rank, 83rd percentileLowHigh
#370 of 2,186 tracts In Virginia
High
Geographic context

Risk heat across Lynchburg and the region

Centroid at 37.4143, -79.2176 · click any tract to drill in

Why Woodbine Village scores 5.3

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Lynchburg
4.0
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.1
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
28.3% poverty · this tract
7.1
Supply constraint
$940 rent vs county FMR
2.8
Rent control risk
Inherited from Lynchburg
1.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Lynchburg
3.0
Housing court bias
Inherited from Lynchburg
3.5

How Woodbine Village compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Woodbine Village risk score vs. parent city / county / state5.3This tracttract 0002043.9Lynchburgparent city4.2Countyavg tract in county4.2Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 49

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Historical context · 1930s redlining

HOLC grade: A: Best

This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade A meant wealthy, predominantly white neighborhoods favored for lending. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.

Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Woodbine Village

The score leans hardest on court filing pressure at 9.1/10. Running cool, rent-regulation exposure reads 1.5/10.

The poverty rate is 28%, which in this model reads as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment. Against the Lynchburg City average of 4.2, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 1.1 points.

Cost burden runs about half here against 43.8% across Lynchburg City. Well under the midpoint, supply constraint reads 2.8/10.

SNAP participation runs 22.6% against 15.2% nationally. At $940 a month, rents run 12% under what the rest of Lynchburg commands.

This ground was mapped A ("Best") on the 1930s HOLC security maps for Lynchburg. That grading determined who could get a mortgage, and its imprint on tenure and rent burden is still visible in the ACS data above. That is riskier than roughly 67% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model. CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 5.4/10.

Statewide the VA average is 4.2, so this tract runs 1.1 points hotter. Annual rent works out to 24% of average household income of $47,275.

Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.

Frequently asked

About tract 51680000204

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51680000204?

Census tract 51680000204 in the Woodbine Village neighborhood scores 5.3/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 51680000204?

Median gross rent is $940/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 50% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 51680000204?

28.3% of residents in tract 51680000204 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,824.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 51680000204?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 49th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 44th, household 34th, minority 73th, housing 52th.
Q5

Is tract 51680000204 considered part of Woodbine Village?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51680000204 fall within Woodbine Village (neighborhood centroid within 0.5 miles, OSM data).
Q6

What share of households in tract 51680000204 struggle to pay rent?

About 17.4% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 13.3% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7

How does tract 51680000204 compare to Lynchburg overall?

Tract 51680000204 scores 5.3/10, higher than the parent city of Lynchburg at 3.9/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Lynchburg eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Q8

Was tract 51680000204 historically redlined?

Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of A. 0% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Lynchburg

Top eight tracts in Lynchburg ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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