Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #29,336 of 84,120 nationally
Winston Ridge Eviction Risk: Moderate , Lynchburg
Tract 51680001900 · Lynchburg city, VA · pop 4,675 · neighborhood within 0.2 mi
With a score of 5.2/10, tract 51680001900 in the Winston Ridge area of Lynchburg, VA reads moderate for landlord eviction risk. It is home to 4,675 residents. Severe burden reaches 34%. Those are renters paying half their income or more, and that is where non-payment filings originate.
Risk score
5.2
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 28%
Stable renters 25%
Owners 47%
Tract context
Occupied units1,939
Renter share53.3%
SVI overall0.95
Poverty rate26.5%
Median income$49,001
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
77
th percentile
High
Within county
77
th percentile
High
Within state
81
th percentile
High
Geographic context
Risk heat across Lynchburg and the region
Centroid at 37.3911, -79.1225 · click any tract to drill in
Why Winston Ridge scores 5.2
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Lynchburg
4.0
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.1
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
26.5% poverty · this tract
6.6
Supply constraint
$964 rent vs county FMR
3.0
Rent control risk
Inherited from Lynchburg
1.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Lynchburg
3.0
Housing court bias
Inherited from Lynchburg
3.5
How Winston Ridge compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 95
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 90%Socioeconomic
- 83%Household composition
- 78%Racial/ethnic minority
- 94%Housing & transportation
Historical context · 1930s redlining
HOLC grade: C: Definitely Declining
This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade C meant mixed-race / working-class neighborhoods rated as risky. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.
- 0%Grade A
- 0%Grade B
- 8%Grade C
- 2%Grade D · redlined
Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 926Total filings over 4 yrs
- 25.67%Avg annual filing rate
- 29.4%Peak (2013)
- 177Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings dropped 36% over the past 4 months.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 25.3%Housing insecurity
- 19.2%Utility-shutoff threat
- 34.3%Food insecurity
- 36.2%SNAP enrollment
- 17.6%Transit barriers
- 13.6%No health insurance
- 22.0%Frequent mental distress
- 43.8%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Winston Ridge
The dominant input is court filing pressure at 9.1/10. Well under the midpoint, rent-regulation exposure reads 1.5/10.
Food insecurity runs 34.3% against 17.8% nationally. 53% of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, higher than the Lynchburg City average of 43.8%.
The poverty rate is 27%. Judgments in high-poverty tracts are collectible far less often than filing counts suggest. Disability prevalence runs 43.8% against 31.5% nationally.
It sits 1.0 points above the Lynchburg City average of 4.2. Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 926 filings here across 4 tracked years.
Running cool, tenant-organizing strength reads 3/10. Average gross rent is $964, 10% below the Lynchburg average.
The worst year on record was 2013, when 29.4% of renter households were served. This ground was mapped C ("Definitely Declining") on the 1930s HOLC security maps for Lynchburg. That grading determined who could get a mortgage, and its imprint on tenure and rent burden is still visible in the ACS data above. In a typical year about 25.7% of renter households face a filing.
On the national scale it lands near the 65th percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored. CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 9.5/10.
All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.
Frequently asked
About tract 51680001900
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51680001900?
Census tract 51680001900 in the Winston Ridge neighborhood scores 5.2/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51680001900?
Median gross rent is $964/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 53% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51680001900?
26.5% of residents in tract 51680001900 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,675.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51680001900?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 95th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 90th, household 83th, minority 78th, housing 94th.
Q5
Is tract 51680001900 considered part of Winston Ridge?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51680001900 fall within Winston Ridge (neighborhood centroid within 0.2 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51680001900?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 926 eviction filings across 4 validated years in tract 51680001900 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 25.67% of renter households, peaking at 29.4% in 2013. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 51680001900 struggle to pay rent?
About 25.3% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 19.2% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 51680001900 compare to Lynchburg overall?
Tract 51680001900 scores 5.2/10, higher than the parent city of Lynchburg at 3.9/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Lynchburg eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Q9
Was tract 51680001900 historically redlined?
Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of C. 2% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Lynchburg
Top eight tracts in Lynchburg ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · VA
Tinbridge Hill
5.3
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
Miller Park
5.3
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
Diamond Hill
5.3
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
College Park
5.3
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
Woodbine Village
5.3
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
Westend
5.1
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
Cornerstone
4.8
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
Lower Rivermont
4.6
/ 10 · Moderate
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