Within neighborhood
100
th percentile
Very High
Neighborhood · Ranked #31,049 of 84,120 nationally
Westend Eviction Risk: Moderate , Lynchburg
Tract 51680000203 · Lynchburg city, VA · pop 2,158 · neighborhood within 0.6 mi
Tract 51680000203 sits in the Westend area of Lynchburg eviction risk, VA, carrying an eviction-risk score of 5.1/10. 27% of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, well below the Lynchburg City average of 43.8%.
Risk score
5.1
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 25%
Stable renters 67%
Owners 8%
Tract context
Occupied units100
Renter share92.0%
SVI overall0.30
Poverty rate28.7%
Median income$54,211
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
73
th percentile
Elevated
Within county
73
th percentile
Elevated
Within state
78
th percentile
High
Geographic context
Risk heat across Lynchburg and the region
Centroid at 37.3986, -79.1839 · click any tract to drill in
Why Westend scores 5.1
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Lynchburg
4.0
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.1
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
28.7% poverty · this tract
7.2
Supply constraint
$1,205 rent vs county FMR
5.0
Rent control risk
Inherited from Lynchburg
1.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Lynchburg
3.0
Housing court bias
Inherited from Lynchburg
3.5
How Westend compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 30
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 60%Socioeconomic
- 1%Household composition
- 50%Racial/ethnic minority
- 57%Housing & transportation
Historical context · 1930s redlining
HOLC grade: C: Definitely Declining
This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade C meant mixed-race / working-class neighborhoods rated as risky. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.
- 0%Grade A
- 0%Grade B
- 29%Grade C
- 0%Grade D · redlined
Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 12Total filings over 4 yrs
- 5.67%Avg annual filing rate
- 9.3%Peak (2014)
- 2Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings stayed roughly flat over the past 4 months.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Westend. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 11.6%Housing insecurity
- 7.0%Utility-shutoff threat
- 16.1%Food insecurity
- 10.9%SNAP enrollment
- 12.3%Transit barriers
- 8.0%No health insurance
- 27.9%Frequent mental distress
- 31.1%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Westend
This is renter territory: 92% of occupied units are tenant-occupied. The dominant input is court filing pressure at 9.1/10. Well under the midpoint, rent-regulation exposure reads 1.5/10.
The poverty rate is 29%. Judgments in high-poverty tracts are collectible far less often than filing counts suggest. The severe-burden share is 14%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment.
Sitting well above the midpoint, economic stress reads 7.2/10. The filing record is not thin: 12 evictions over 4 years of observation. It sits 0.9 points above the Lynchburg City average of 4.2.
Average gross rent is $1,205, 12% above the Lynchburg average. The worst year on record was 2014, when 9.3% of renter households were served.
This ground was mapped C ("Definitely Declining") on the 1930s HOLC security maps for Lynchburg. That grading determined who could get a mortgage, and its imprint on tenure and rent burden is still visible in the ACS data above. In a typical year about 5.7% of renter households face a filing.
Nationally it ranks #31,049 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty.
These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.
Frequently asked
About tract 51680000203
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51680000203?
Census tract 51680000203 in the Westend neighborhood scores 5.1/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51680000203?
Median gross rent is $1,205/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 27% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51680000203?
28.7% of residents in tract 51680000203 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 2,158.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51680000203?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 30th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 60th, household 1th, minority 50th, housing 57th.
Q5
Is tract 51680000203 considered part of Westend?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51680000203 fall within Westend (neighborhood centroid within 0.6 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51680000203?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 12 eviction filings across 4 validated years in tract 51680000203 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 5.67% of renter households, peaking at 9.3% in 2014. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 51680000203 struggle to pay rent?
About 11.6% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 7.0% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 51680000203 compare to Lynchburg overall?
Tract 51680000203 scores 5.1/10, higher than the parent city of Lynchburg at 3.9/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Lynchburg eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Q9
Was tract 51680000203 historically redlined?
Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of C. 0% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Lynchburg
Top eight tracts in Lynchburg ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · VA
College Park
5.3
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
Woodbine Village
5.3
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
Tinbridge Hill
5.3
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
Miller Park
5.3
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
Diamond Hill
5.3
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
Winston Ridge
5.2
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
Cornerstone
4.8
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · VA
Lower Rivermont
4.6
/ 10 · Moderate
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