Neighborhood · Ranked #49,613 of 84,120 nationally

Forest Ridge Eviction Risk: Moderate , Lake Ridge

Tract 51153901235 · Prince William County, VA · pop 3,004 · neighborhood within 0.3 mi

Tract 51153901235, home to 3,004 residents in the Forest Ridge neighborhood of Lake Ridge, scores 4.7/10 for landlord eviction risk. That is riskier than about 27% of US census tracts.

Rent eats 30% or more of income for 0% of renter households, a modest level, and 0% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average gross rent is $2,694 monthly, set against $174,091 in average yearly household income, roughly 19% of income at the averages. About 5% of occupied units are renter-occupied.

Risk score

4.1

Moderate

Confidence 100% · 1-10 scale

Household mix · 100 hh

Burdened renters 0% Stable renters 5% Owners 95%

Tract context

Occupied units972

Renter share5.0%

SVI overall0.00

Poverty rate0.5%

Median income$174,091

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Lake Ridge and the region

Centroid at 38.6980, -77.3364 · click any tract to drill in

Why Forest Ridge scores 4.1

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly

Local political climate

Inherited from Lake Ridge

7.4

Regional political climate

2024 county presidential margin

6.4

State political climate

Virginia legislature & governorship

3.2

Economic stress

0.5% poverty · this tract

1.0

Supply constraint

$2,694 rent vs county FMR

6.6

Rent control risk

Inherited from Lake Ridge

5.0

Eviction process difficulty

State law sets the calendar

3.4

Tenant organizing strength

Inherited from Lake Ridge

5.4

Housing court bias

Inherited from Lake Ridge

4.2

How Forest Ridge compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.

CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 0

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

0%Socioeconomic
16%Household composition
51%Racial/ethnic minority
1%Housing & transportation

Eviction filings · Princeton Eviction Lab

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.

Historic baseline (2000-2018)

7Total filings over 1 yrs
6.93%Avg annual filing rate
6.9%Peak (2016)
7Filings in 2016 (latest validated)

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

7.4%Housing insecurity
4.7%Utility-shutoff threat
7.3%Food insecurity
4.8%SNAP enrollment
4.7%Transit barriers
5.2%No health insurance
13.3%Frequent mental distress
21.9%Any disability

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Forest Ridge

The score leans hardest on supply constraint at 6.6/10. That part is specific to this tract, computed from its own rent, income, and poverty figures. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Lake Ridge eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores below the Prince William County average of 5.7 and below the Virginia statewide average of 5.3. Within its own county it reads on the safer side for landlords.

The tract is racially mixed and ranks around the 0th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. That is a relatively low-vulnerability reading.

Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 7 eviction filings here over 1 tracked years, with about 6.9% of renter households facing a filing in a typical year. Filings peaked at 6.9% of renter households in 2016.

For a landlord, conditions here are middle-of-the-road. Standard screening and prompt, documented notices usually keep cases short.

Frequently asked

About tract 51153901235

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51153901235?

Census tract 51153901235 in the Forest Ridge neighborhood scores 4.1/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.

What is the average rent in tract 51153901235?

Median gross rent is $2,694/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 0% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What is the poverty rate in tract 51153901235?

0.5% of residents in tract 51153901235 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,004.

How socially vulnerable is tract 51153901235?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 0th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 0th, household 16th, minority 51th, housing 1th.

Is tract 51153901235 considered part of Forest Ridge?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51153901235 fall within Forest Ridge (neighborhood centroid within 0.3 miles, OSM data).

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51153901235?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 7 eviction filings across 1 validated years in tract 51153901235 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 6.93% of renter households, peaking at 6.9% in 2016. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.

What share of households in tract 51153901235 struggle to pay rent?

About 7.4% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 4.7% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.

How does tract 51153901235 compare to Lake Ridge overall?

Tract 51153901235 scores 4.1/10, lower than the parent city of Lake Ridge at 5.2/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Lake Ridge eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.

Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Lake Ridge

Top eight tracts in Lake Ridge ranked by composite eviction-risk score.