Forest Ridge Eviction Risk: Lower , Lake Ridge
Tract 51153901235 · Prince William County, VA · pop 3,004 · neighborhood within 0.3 mi
51153901235 is a census tract in the Forest Ridge area of Lake Ridge, VA. It scores 3.2/10 for landlords. Population here is 3,004. What pushes it up most is court filing pressure at 9.1/10.
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Risk heat across Lake Ridge and the region
Centroid at 38.6980, -77.3364 · click any tract to drill in
Why Forest Ridge scores 3.2
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyHow Forest Ridge compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.SVI percentile: 0
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 0%Socioeconomic
- 16%Household composition
- 51%Racial/ethnic minority
- 1%Housing & transportation
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 7Total filings over 1 yrs
- 6.93%Avg annual filing rate
- 6.9%Peak (2016)
- 7Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 7.4%Housing insecurity
- 4.7%Utility-shutoff threat
- 7.3%Food insecurity
- 4.8%SNAP enrollment
- 4.7%Transit barriers
- 5.2%No health insurance
- 13.3%Frequent mental distress
- 21.9%Any disability
What drives eviction risk in Forest Ridge
On the softer side, economic stress reads 1/10. Average gross rent is $2,694, 33% above the Lake Ridge average. Food insecurity runs 7.3% against 17.8% nationally.
SNAP participation runs 4.8% against 15.2% nationally. Sitting well above the midpoint, local political climate reads 7.4/10.
The voucher gap is 16.4%: households holding assistance that local rents will not absorb, which surfaces as churn rather than arrears. The filing record is not thin: 7 evictions over 1 years of observation. It sits 0.9 points below the Prince William County average of 4.1.
Filings peaked in 2016 at 6.9% of renter households. In a typical year about 6.9% of renter households face a filing.
Nationally it ranks #63,308 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty. At 5% renter-occupied this is predominantly owner territory, and comps have to be drawn from further out.
Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.
About tract 51153901235
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51153901235?
What is the average rent in tract 51153901235?
What is the poverty rate in tract 51153901235?
How socially vulnerable is tract 51153901235?
Is tract 51153901235 considered part of Forest Ridge?
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51153901235?
What share of households in tract 51153901235 struggle to pay rent?
How does tract 51153901235 compare to Lake Ridge overall?
Highest-risk tracts in Lake Ridge
Top eight tracts in Lake Ridge ranked by composite eviction-risk score.