Within neighborhood
0
th percentile
Very Low
Neighborhood · Ranked #12,481 of 84,120 nationally
Jefferson Plaza Eviction Risk: Elevated , Woodbridge
Tract 51153900203 · Prince William County, VA · pop 4,589 · neighborhood within 0.5 mi
Tract 51153900203 sits in the Jefferson Plaza area of Woodbridge eviction risk, VA, carrying an eviction-risk score of 7.1/10. It is home to 4,589 residents. Against the Prince William County average of 4.1, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 3.0 points.
Risk score
7.1
Elevated
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 41%
Stable renters 51%
Owners 8%
Tract context
Occupied units1,387
Renter share92.5%
SVI overall0.80
Poverty rate11.0%
Median income$90,152
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
56
th percentile
Elevated
Within county
96
th percentile
Very High
Within state
98
th percentile
Very High
Geographic context
Risk heat across Woodbridge and the region
Centroid at 38.6547, -77.2626 · click any tract to drill in
Why Jefferson Plaza scores 7.1
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Woodbridge
7.4
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
6.4
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
11.0% poverty · this tract
2.8
Supply constraint
$2,159 rent vs county FMR
4.3
Rent control risk
Inherited from Woodbridge
6.2
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.1
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Woodbridge
8.4
Housing court bias
Inherited from Woodbridge
5.5
How Jefferson Plaza compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 80
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 81%Socioeconomic
- 78%Household composition
- 90%Racial/ethnic minority
- 52%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 332Total filings over 1 yrs
- 27.28%Avg annual filing rate
- 27.3%Peak (2016)
- 332Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Jefferson Plaza. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 25.5%Housing insecurity
- 16.2%Utility-shutoff threat
- 32.1%Food insecurity
- 27.2%SNAP enrollment
- 16.1%Transit barriers
- 21.9%No health insurance
- 20.1%Frequent mental distress
- 37.8%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Jefferson Plaza
34% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears. 93% of occupied units are rented, so comparables are plentiful and vacancy risk is low, but a mispriced renewal loses the tenant to a building nearby.
The dominant input is court filing pressure at 9.1/10. On the high side, tenant-organizing strength reads 8.4/10. SNAP participation runs 27.2% against 15.2% nationally.
Housing insecurity runs 25.5% against 14.2% nationally. Sitting well above the midpoint, local political climate reads 7.4/10. Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 332 filings here across 1 tracked years.
The worst year on record was 2016, when 27.3% of renter households were served. In a typical year about 27.3% of renter households face a filing. That is riskier than roughly 85% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model.
All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.
Frequently asked
About tract 51153900203
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51153900203?
Census tract 51153900203 in the Jefferson Plaza neighborhood scores 7.1/10 (Elevated tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 51153900203?
Median gross rent is $2,159/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 45% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 51153900203?
11.0% of residents in tract 51153900203 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,589.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 51153900203?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 80th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 81th, household 78th, minority 90th, housing 52th.
Q5
Is tract 51153900203 considered part of Jefferson Plaza?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51153900203 fall within Jefferson Plaza (neighborhood centroid within 0.5 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51153900203?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 332 eviction filings across 1 validated years in tract 51153900203 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 27.28% of renter households, peaking at 27.3% in 2016. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 51153900203 struggle to pay rent?
About 25.5% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 16.2% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 51153900203 compare to Woodbridge overall?
Tract 51153900203 scores 7.1/10, higher than the parent city of Woodbridge at 5.9/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Woodbridge eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Woodbridge
Top eight tracts in Woodbridge ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · VA
Jefferson Plaza
7.3
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Marumsco Hills
7.3
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Featherstone Shores
7.3
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Marumsco Village
7.2
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Potomac Town Center
6.6
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Featherstone Shores
6.5
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Marumsco Village
6
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · VA
Marumsco Hills
5.7
/ 10 · Elevated
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