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Neighborhood · Ranked #14,906 of 84,120 nationally

Potomac Town Center Eviction Risk: Elevated , Leesylvania

Tract 51153900701 · Prince William County, VA · pop 7,048 · neighborhood within 0.6 mi

Census tract 51153900701 covers part of the Potomac Town Center area of Woodbridge, VA, and scores 6.6/10 on landlord eviction risk. It sits 2.5 points above the Prince William County average of 4.1.

Risk score
6.6
Elevated
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 36% Stable renters 29% Owners 35%
Tract context
Occupied units2,863
Renter share65.7%
SVI overall0.68
Poverty rate9.5%
Median income$102,745

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
100 th percentile
Rank, 100th percentileLowHigh
#1 of 2 tracts In Potomac Town Center
Very High
Within parent city
44 th percentile
Rank, 44th percentileLowHigh
#6 of 10 tracts In Leesylvania
Moderate
Within county
95 th percentile
Rank, 95th percentileLowHigh
#6 of 93 tracts In Prince William County
Very High
Within state
96 th percentile
Rank, 96th percentileLowHigh
#81 of 2,186 tracts In Virginia
Very High
Geographic context

Risk heat across Leesylvania and the region

Centroid at 38.6209, -77.2768 · click any tract to drill in

Why Potomac Town Center scores 6.6

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Leesylvania
7.4
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
6.4
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
9.5% poverty · this tract
2.4
Supply constraint
$2,249 rent vs county FMR
4.7
Rent control risk
Inherited from Leesylvania
6.2
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.1
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Leesylvania
8.4
Housing court bias
Inherited from Leesylvania
5.5

How Potomac Town Center compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Potomac Town Center risk score vs. parent city / county / state6.6This tracttract 9007014.2Leesylvaniaparent city4.1Countyavg tract in county4.2Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 68

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 246Total filings over 1 yrs
  • 18.39%Avg annual filing rate
  • 18.4%Peak (2016)
  • 246Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Potomac Town Center. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Potomac Town Center

The score leans hardest on court filing pressure at 9.1/10. 55% of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, markedly above the Prince William County average of 43.3%. Running hot, tenant-organizing strength reads 8.4/10.

This is renter territory: 66% of occupied units are tenant-occupied. 13% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears.

Running cool, economic stress reads 2.4/10. Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 246 filings here across 1 tracked years. Filings peaked in 2016 at 18.4% of renter households.

In a typical year about 18.4% of renter households face a filing. That is riskier than roughly 82% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model. On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 7.2/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here.

Statewide the VA average is 4.2, so this tract runs 2.4 points hotter. Of its three components the housing type and transport measure is the most pressured. Average gross rent is $2,249, close to the Woodbridge average.

These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.

Frequently asked

About tract 51153900701

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51153900701?

Census tract 51153900701 in the Potomac Town Center neighborhood scores 6.6/10 (Elevated tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 51153900701?

Median gross rent is $2,249/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 55% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 51153900701?

9.5% of residents in tract 51153900701 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 7,048.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 51153900701?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 68th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 59th, household 25th, minority 88th, housing 84th.
Q5

Is tract 51153900701 considered part of Potomac Town Center?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51153900701 fall within Potomac Town Center (neighborhood centroid within 0.6 miles, OSM data).
Q6

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51153900701?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 246 eviction filings across 1 validated years in tract 51153900701 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 18.39% of renter households, peaking at 18.4% in 2016. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7

What share of households in tract 51153900701 struggle to pay rent?

About 16.1% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 10.1% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8

How does tract 51153900701 compare to Leesylvania overall?

Tract 51153900701 scores 6.6/10, higher than the parent city of Leesylvania at 4.2/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Leesylvania eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Leesylvania

Top eight tracts in Leesylvania ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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