Neighborhood · Ranked #20,273 of 84,120 nationally

Potomac Town Center Eviction Risk: Elevated , Leesylvania

Tract 51153900701 · Prince William County, VA · pop 7,048 · neighborhood within 0.6 mi

The Potomac Town Center neighborhood of Leesylvania anchors census tract 51153900701, which lands at 6.4/10 on landlord eviction risk. It lands near the 84th percentile nationally for landlord eviction risk.

About 55% of renters carry a rent burden of 30% of income or higher, a severe level, and 13% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average rent runs $2,249 a month against an average household income of $102,745 a year, roughly 26% of income at the averages. Renters make up 66% of occupied homes, a renter-majority tract.

Risk score

6.4

Elevated

Confidence 100% · 1-10 scale

Household mix · 100 hh

Burdened renters 36% Stable renters 29% Owners 35%

Tract context

Occupied units2,863

Renter share65.7%

SVI overall0.68

Poverty rate9.5%

Median income$102,745

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Leesylvania and the region

Centroid at 38.6209, -77.2768 · click any tract to drill in

Why Potomac Town Center scores 6.4

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly

Local political climate

Inherited from Leesylvania

7.4

Regional political climate

2024 county presidential margin

6.4

State political climate

Virginia legislature & governorship

3.2

Economic stress

9.5% poverty · this tract

2.4

Supply constraint

$2,249 rent vs county FMR

4.7

Rent control risk

Inherited from Leesylvania

6.2

Eviction process difficulty

State law sets the calendar

3.1

Tenant organizing strength

Inherited from Leesylvania

8.4

Housing court bias

Inherited from Leesylvania

5.5

How Potomac Town Center compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.

CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 68

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

59%Socioeconomic
25%Household composition
88%Racial/ethnic minority
84%Housing & transportation

Eviction filings · Princeton Eviction Lab

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.

Historic baseline (2000-2018)

246Total filings over 1 yrs
18.39%Avg annual filing rate
18.4%Peak (2016)
246Filings in 2016 (latest validated)

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Potomac Town Center. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

16.1%Housing insecurity
10.1%Utility-shutoff threat
17.1%Food insecurity
13.2%SNAP enrollment
9.5%Transit barriers
10.2%No health insurance
17.3%Frequent mental distress
27.2%Any disability

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Potomac Town Center

The score leans hardest on tenant organizing strength at 8.4/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Leesylvania eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores above the Prince William County average of 5.7 and above the Virginia statewide average of 5.3. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.

The tract is Black and Hispanic or Latino and ranks around the 68th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. That is a middle-of-the-pack reading for social vulnerability.

Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 246 eviction filings here over 1 tracked years, with about 18.4% of renter households facing a filing in a typical year. Filings peaked at 18.4% of renter households in 2016.

For a landlord, this is a tract where process discipline pays off. Clean paperwork and steady screening keep the elevated risk manageable.

Frequently asked

About tract 51153900701

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51153900701?

Census tract 51153900701 in the Potomac Town Center neighborhood scores 6.4/10 (Elevated tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.

What is the average rent in tract 51153900701?

Median gross rent is $2,249/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 55% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What is the poverty rate in tract 51153900701?

9.5% of residents in tract 51153900701 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 7,048.

How socially vulnerable is tract 51153900701?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 68th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 59th, household 25th, minority 88th, housing 84th.

Is tract 51153900701 considered part of Potomac Town Center?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51153900701 fall within Potomac Town Center (neighborhood centroid within 0.6 miles, OSM data).

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51153900701?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 246 eviction filings across 1 validated years in tract 51153900701 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 18.39% of renter households, peaking at 18.4% in 2016. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.

What share of households in tract 51153900701 struggle to pay rent?

About 16.1% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 10.1% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.

How does tract 51153900701 compare to Leesylvania overall?

Tract 51153900701 scores 6.4/10, higher than the parent city of Leesylvania at 5.4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Leesylvania eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.

Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Leesylvania

Top eight tracts in Leesylvania ranked by composite eviction-risk score.