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Neighborhood · Ranked #11,153 of 84,120 nationally

Marumsco Hills Eviction Risk: Elevated , Woodbridge

Tract 51153900504 · Prince William County, VA · pop 5,079 · neighborhood within 0.2 mi

With a score of 7.3/10, tract 51153900504 in the Marumsco Hills area of Woodbridge, VA reads elevated for landlord eviction risk. It is home to 5,079 residents. Cost burden runs 70% here against 43.3% across Prince William County.

Risk score
7.3
Elevated
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 23% Stable renters 10% Owners 67%
Tract context
Occupied units1,425
Renter share33.3%
SVI overall0.96
Poverty rate11.1%
Median income$60,229

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
100 th percentile
Rank, 100th percentileLowHigh
#1 of 2 tracts In Marumsco Hills
Very High
Within parent city
100 th percentile
Rank, 100th percentileLowHigh
#1 of 10 tracts In Woodbridge
Very High
Within county
100 th percentile
Rank, 100th percentileLowHigh
#1 of 93 tracts In Prince William County
Very High
Within state
99 th percentile
Rank, 99th percentileLowHigh
#24 of 2,186 tracts In Virginia
Very High
Geographic context

Risk heat across Woodbridge and the region

Centroid at 38.6434, -77.2720 · click any tract to drill in

Why Marumsco Hills scores 7.3

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Woodbridge
7.4
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
6.4
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
11.1% poverty · this tract
2.8
Supply constraint
$1,593 rent vs county FMR
1.9
Rent control risk
Inherited from Woodbridge
6.2
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.1
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Woodbridge
8.4
Housing court bias
Inherited from Woodbridge
5.5

How Marumsco Hills compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Marumsco Hills risk score vs. parent city / county / state7.3This tracttract 9005045.9Woodbridgeparent city4.1Countyavg tract in county4.2Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 96

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Marumsco Hills. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Marumsco Hills

It sits 3.2 points above the Prince William County average of 4.1. Severe burden reaches 28%. Those are renters paying half their income or more, and that is where non-payment filings originate.

What pushes it up most is court filing pressure at 9.1/10. Running hot, tenant-organizing strength reads 8.4/10. Adults with no health insurance runs 25.6% against 11.3% nationally.

At $1,593 a month, rents run 24% under what the rest of Woodbridge commands. On the softer side, supply constraint reads 1.9/10. Inability to pay a utility bill runs 14.6% against 9.2% nationally. Utility arrears usually lead rent arrears by a month or two.

Nationally it ranks #11,153 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty. CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 9.7/10. Statewide the VA average is 4.2, so this tract runs 3.1 points hotter.

Of its three components the socioeconomic standing measure is the most pressured. Annual rent works out to 32% of average household income of $60,229. 33% of occupied units are renter-occupied.

Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.

Frequently asked

About tract 51153900504

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51153900504?

Census tract 51153900504 in the Marumsco Hills neighborhood scores 7.3/10 (Elevated tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 51153900504?

Median gross rent is $1,593/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 70% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 51153900504?

11.1% of residents in tract 51153900504 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 5,079.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 51153900504?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 96th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 99th, household 91th, minority 88th, housing 76th.
Q5

Is tract 51153900504 considered part of Marumsco Hills?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51153900504 fall within Marumsco Hills (neighborhood centroid within 0.2 miles, OSM data).
Q6

What share of households in tract 51153900504 struggle to pay rent?

About 24.4% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 14.6% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7

How does tract 51153900504 compare to Woodbridge overall?

Tract 51153900504 scores 7.3/10, higher than the parent city of Woodbridge at 5.9/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Woodbridge eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Woodbridge

Top eight tracts in Woodbridge ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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