Neighborhood · Ranked #45,599 of 84,120 nationally

Marumsco Village Eviction Risk: Moderate , Woodbridge

Tract 51153900202 · Prince William County, VA · pop 4,124 · neighborhood within 0.5 mi

Census tract 51153900202 covers Marumsco Village in Woodbridge, home to 4,124 residents. For landlords it grades 5.2/10, a moderate reading. That is riskier than roughly 44% of the 84,120 US census tracts we score.

Rent eats 30% or more of income for 15% of renter households, a modest level, and 6% are severely burdened at 50% or more. The typical renter pays about $2,052 a month while the average household earns $97,594 a year, roughly 25% of income at the averages. About 18% of occupied units are renter-occupied.

Risk score

4.4

Moderate

Confidence 100% · 1-10 scale

Household mix · 100 hh

Burdened renters 3% Stable renters 15% Owners 82%

Tract context

Occupied units1,055

Renter share17.6%

SVI overall0.35

Poverty rate1.3%

Median income$97,594

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Woodbridge and the region

Centroid at 38.6629, -77.2665 · click any tract to drill in

Why Marumsco Village scores 4.4

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly

Local political climate

Inherited from Woodbridge

7.4

Regional political climate

2024 county presidential margin

6.4

State political climate

Virginia legislature & governorship

3.2

Economic stress

1.3% poverty · this tract

1.0

Supply constraint

$2,052 rent vs county FMR

3.9

Rent control risk

Inherited from Woodbridge

6.2

Eviction process difficulty

State law sets the calendar

3.1

Tenant organizing strength

Inherited from Woodbridge

8.4

Housing court bias

Inherited from Woodbridge

5.5

How Marumsco Village compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.

CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 35

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

53%Socioeconomic
20%Household composition
81%Racial/ethnic minority
17%Housing & transportation

Eviction filings · Princeton Eviction Lab

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.

Historic baseline (2000-2018)

12Total filings over 1 yrs
5.69%Avg annual filing rate
5.7%Peak (2016)
12Filings in 2016 (latest validated)

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Marumsco Village. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

15.3%Housing insecurity
7.7%Utility-shutoff threat
17.2%Food insecurity
10.2%SNAP enrollment
8.6%Transit barriers
17.8%No health insurance
15.9%Frequent mental distress
30.5%Any disability

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Marumsco Village

The score leans hardest on tenant organizing strength at 8.4/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Woodbridge eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores below the Prince William County average of 5.7 and in line with the Virginia statewide average of 5.3. Within its own county it reads on the safer side for landlords.

In CDC survey modeling, about 15.3% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 7.7% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.

Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 12 eviction filings here over 1 tracked years, with about 5.7% of renter households facing a filing in a typical year. Filings peaked at 5.7% of renter households in 2016.

For a landlord, conditions here are middle-of-the-road. Standard screening and prompt, documented notices usually keep cases short.

Frequently asked

About tract 51153900202

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51153900202?

Census tract 51153900202 in the Marumsco Village neighborhood scores 4.4/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.

What is the average rent in tract 51153900202?

Median gross rent is $2,052/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 15% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What is the poverty rate in tract 51153900202?

1.3% of residents in tract 51153900202 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,124.

How socially vulnerable is tract 51153900202?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 35th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 53th, household 20th, minority 81th, housing 17th.

Is tract 51153900202 considered part of Marumsco Village?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51153900202 fall within Marumsco Village (neighborhood centroid within 0.5 miles, OSM data).

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51153900202?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 12 eviction filings across 1 validated years in tract 51153900202 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 5.69% of renter households, peaking at 5.7% in 2016. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.

What share of households in tract 51153900202 struggle to pay rent?

About 15.3% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 7.7% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.

How does tract 51153900202 compare to Woodbridge overall?

Tract 51153900202 scores 4.4/10, lower than the parent city of Woodbridge at 5.7/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Woodbridge eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.

Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Woodbridge

Top eight tracts in Woodbridge ranked by composite eviction-risk score.