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Neighborhood · Ranked #11,153 of 84,120 nationally

Jefferson Plaza Eviction Risk: Elevated , Woodbridge

Tract 51153900602 · Prince William County, VA · pop 3,586 · neighborhood within 0.4 mi

51153900602 is a census tract in the Jefferson Plaza area of Woodbridge, VA. It scores 7.3/10 for landlords. It is home to 3,586 residents. It sits 3.2 points above the Prince William County average of 4.1.

Risk score
7.3
Elevated
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 36% Stable renters 37% Owners 27%
Tract context
Occupied units1,421
Renter share72.8%
SVI overall0.79
Poverty rate9.6%
Median income$67,314

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
100 th percentile
Rank, 100th percentileLowHigh
#1 of 2 tracts In Jefferson Plaza
Very High
Within parent city
78 th percentile
Rank, 78th percentileLowHigh
#3 of 10 tracts In Woodbridge
High
Within county
99 th percentile
Rank, 99th percentileLowHigh
#2 of 93 tracts In Prince William County
Very High
Within state
99 th percentile
Rank, 99th percentileLowHigh
#24 of 2,186 tracts In Virginia
Very High
Geographic context

Risk heat across Woodbridge and the region

Centroid at 38.6470, -77.2564 · click any tract to drill in

Why Jefferson Plaza scores 7.3

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Woodbridge
7.4
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
6.4
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
9.6% poverty · this tract
2.4
Supply constraint
$1,694 rent vs county FMR
2.3
Rent control risk
Inherited from Woodbridge
6.2
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.1
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Woodbridge
8.4
Housing court bias
Inherited from Woodbridge
5.5

How Jefferson Plaza compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Jefferson Plaza risk score vs. parent city / county / state7.3This tracttract 9006025.9Woodbridgeparent city4.1Countyavg tract in county4.2Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 79

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Jefferson Plaza. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Jefferson Plaza

The dominant input is court filing pressure at 9.1/10. Severe burden reaches 26%. Those are renters paying half their income or more, and that is where non-payment filings originate. 73% of occupied units are rented, so comparables are plentiful and vacancy risk is low, but a mispriced renewal loses the tenant to a building nearby.

Sitting well above the midpoint, tenant-organizing strength reads 8.4/10. On the softer side, supply constraint reads 2.3/10.

At $1,694 a month, rents run 19% under what the rest of Woodbridge commands. Cost burden runs about half here against 43.3% across Prince William County.

Adults with no health insurance runs 18.9% against 11.3% nationally. Nationally it ranks #11,153 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty. CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 8.1/10.

Statewide the VA average is 4.2, so this tract runs 3.1 points hotter. Of its three components the housing type and transport measure is the most pressured.

These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.

Frequently asked

About tract 51153900602

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51153900602?

Census tract 51153900602 in the Jefferson Plaza neighborhood scores 7.3/10 (Elevated tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 51153900602?

Median gross rent is $1,694/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 49% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 51153900602?

9.6% of residents in tract 51153900602 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,586.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 51153900602?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 79th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 83th, household 20th, minority 88th, housing 86th.
Q5

Is tract 51153900602 considered part of Jefferson Plaza?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51153900602 fall within Jefferson Plaza (neighborhood centroid within 0.4 miles, OSM data).
Q6

What share of households in tract 51153900602 struggle to pay rent?

About 20.5% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 12.0% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7

How does tract 51153900602 compare to Woodbridge overall?

Tract 51153900602 scores 7.3/10, higher than the parent city of Woodbridge at 5.9/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Woodbridge eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Woodbridge

Top eight tracts in Woodbridge ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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