Neighborhood · Ranked #20,273 of 84,120 nationally

Jefferson Plaza Eviction Risk: Elevated , Woodbridge

Tract 51153900602 · Prince William County, VA · pop 3,586 · neighborhood within 0.4 mi

Census tract 51153900602 sits in Jefferson Plaza in Woodbridge eviction risk, Virginia eviction laws, and carries an eviction-risk score of 6.3/10. It lands near the 82nd percentile nationally for landlord eviction risk.

49% of renter households here spend at least 30% of income on rent, a severe level, and 26% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average gross rent is $1,694 monthly, set against $67,314 in average yearly household income, roughly 30% of income at the averages. About 73% of occupied units are renter-occupied, a renter-majority tract.

Risk score

6.4

Elevated

Confidence 100% · 1-10 scale

Household mix · 100 hh

Burdened renters 36% Stable renters 37% Owners 27%

Tract context

Occupied units1,421

Renter share72.8%

SVI overall0.79

Poverty rate9.6%

Median income$67,314

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Woodbridge and the region

Centroid at 38.6470, -77.2564 · click any tract to drill in

Why Jefferson Plaza scores 6.4

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly

Local political climate

Inherited from Woodbridge

7.4

Regional political climate

2024 county presidential margin

6.4

State political climate

Virginia legislature & governorship

3.2

Economic stress

9.6% poverty · this tract

2.4

Supply constraint

$1,694 rent vs county FMR

2.3

Rent control risk

Inherited from Woodbridge

6.2

Eviction process difficulty

State law sets the calendar

3.1

Tenant organizing strength

Inherited from Woodbridge

8.4

Housing court bias

Inherited from Woodbridge

5.5

How Jefferson Plaza compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.

CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 79

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

83%Socioeconomic
20%Household composition
88%Racial/ethnic minority
86%Housing & transportation

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Jefferson Plaza. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

20.5%Housing insecurity
12.0%Utility-shutoff threat
24.1%Food insecurity
18.1%SNAP enrollment
12.2%Transit barriers
18.9%No health insurance
18.1%Frequent mental distress
32.9%Any disability

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Jefferson Plaza

What moves this score most is tenant organizing strength at 8.4/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Woodbridge eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores above the Prince William County average of 5.7 and above the Virginia statewide average of 5.3. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.

The tract is Hispanic or Latino and Black and ranks around the 79th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. High vulnerability tends to track with higher eviction-filing rates when rents climb.

In CDC survey modeling, about 20.5% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 12.0% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.

For a landlord, this is a tract where process discipline pays off. Clean paperwork and steady screening keep the elevated risk manageable.

Frequently asked

About tract 51153900602

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51153900602?

Census tract 51153900602 in the Jefferson Plaza neighborhood scores 6.4/10 (Elevated tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.

What is the average rent in tract 51153900602?

Median gross rent is $1,694/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 49% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What is the poverty rate in tract 51153900602?

9.6% of residents in tract 51153900602 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,586.

How socially vulnerable is tract 51153900602?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 79th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 83th, household 20th, minority 88th, housing 86th.

Is tract 51153900602 considered part of Jefferson Plaza?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51153900602 fall within Jefferson Plaza (neighborhood centroid within 0.4 miles, OSM data).

What share of households in tract 51153900602 struggle to pay rent?

About 20.5% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 12.0% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.

How does tract 51153900602 compare to Woodbridge overall?

Tract 51153900602 scores 6.4/10, higher than the parent city of Woodbridge at 5.7/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Woodbridge eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.

Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Woodbridge

Top eight tracts in Woodbridge ranked by composite eviction-risk score.