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Neighborhood · Ranked #18,163 of 84,120 nationally

Marumsco Village Eviction Risk: Elevated , Woodbridge

Tract 51153900202 · Prince William County, VA · pop 4,124 · neighborhood within 0.5 mi

51153900202 is a census tract in the Marumsco Village area of Woodbridge, VA. It scores 6/10 for landlords. Against Prince William County at 43.3%, 15% of renters here are cost-burdened.

Risk score
6
Elevated
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 3% Stable renters 15% Owners 82%
Tract context
Occupied units1,055
Renter share17.6%
SVI overall0.35
Poverty rate1.3%
Median income$97,594

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
50 th percentile
Rank, 50th percentileLowHigh
#2 of 3 tracts In Marumsco Village
Moderate
Within parent city
22 th percentile
Rank, 22nd percentileLowHigh
#8 of 10 tracts In Woodbridge
Low
Within county
92 th percentile
Rank, 92nd percentileLowHigh
#8 of 93 tracts In Prince William County
Very High
Within state
94 th percentile
Rank, 94th percentileLowHigh
#126 of 2,186 tracts In Virginia
Very High
Geographic context

Risk heat across Woodbridge and the region

Centroid at 38.6629, -77.2665 · click any tract to drill in

Why Marumsco Village scores 6

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Woodbridge
7.4
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
6.4
State political climate
Virginia legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
1.3% poverty · this tract
1.0
Supply constraint
$2,052 rent vs county FMR
3.9
Rent control risk
Inherited from Woodbridge
6.2
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.1
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Woodbridge
8.4
Housing court bias
Inherited from Woodbridge
5.5

How Marumsco Village compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Marumsco Village risk score vs. parent city / county / state6.0This tracttract 9002025.9Woodbridgeparent city4.1Countyavg tract in county4.2Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 35

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 12Total filings over 1 yrs
  • 5.69%Avg annual filing rate
  • 5.7%Peak (2016)
  • 12Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Marumsco Village. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Marumsco Village

The score leans hardest on court filing pressure at 9.1/10. Well under the midpoint, economic stress reads 1/10.

Against the Prince William County average of 4.1, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 1.9 points. Sitting well above the midpoint, tenant-organizing strength reads 8.4/10.

The filing record is not thin: 12 evictions over 1 years of observation. Filings peaked in 2016 at 5.7% of renter households. In a typical year about 5.7% of renter households face a filing.

Nationally it ranks #18,163 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty. At 18% renter-occupied this is predominantly owner territory, and comps have to be drawn from further out.

Social vulnerability reads 4.2/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks. Statewide the VA average is 4.2, so this tract runs 1.8 points hotter.

Of its three components the housing type and transport measure is the least pressured. Poverty sits at 1%, low enough that arrears here usually signal a specific shock rather than a structural income gap.

These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.

Frequently asked

About tract 51153900202

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51153900202?

Census tract 51153900202 in the Marumsco Village neighborhood scores 6/10 (Elevated tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 51153900202?

Median gross rent is $2,052/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 15% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 51153900202?

1.3% of residents in tract 51153900202 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,124.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 51153900202?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 35th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 53th, household 20th, minority 81th, housing 17th.
Q5

Is tract 51153900202 considered part of Marumsco Village?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51153900202 fall within Marumsco Village (neighborhood centroid within 0.5 miles, OSM data).
Q6

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51153900202?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 12 eviction filings across 1 validated years in tract 51153900202 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 5.69% of renter households, peaking at 5.7% in 2016. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7

What share of households in tract 51153900202 struggle to pay rent?

About 15.3% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 7.7% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8

How does tract 51153900202 compare to Woodbridge overall?

Tract 51153900202 scores 6/10, right in line with the parent city of Woodbridge at 5.9/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Woodbridge eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Woodbridge

Top eight tracts in Woodbridge ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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