Neighborhood · Ranked #21,564 of 84,120 nationally

Marumsco Hills Eviction Risk: Moderate , Woodbridge

Tract 51153900503 · Prince William County, VA · pop 3,823 · neighborhood within 0.2 mi

With a score of 5.7/10, tract 51153900503 in the Marumsco Hills area of Woodbridge, VA reads moderate for landlord eviction risk. Population here is 3,823. The dominant input is court filing pressure at 9.1/10.

Risk score

5.7

Moderate

Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale

Household mix · 100 hh

Burdened renters 15% Stable renters 30% Owners 55%

Tract context

Occupied units1,217

Renter share45.9%

SVI overall0.64

Poverty rate1.8%

Median income$109,297

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Woodbridge and the region

Centroid at 38.6448, -77.2802 · click any tract to drill in

Why Marumsco Hills scores 5.7

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly

Local political climate

Inherited from Woodbridge

7.4

Regional political climate

2024 county presidential margin

6.4

State political climate

Virginia legislature & governorship

3.2

Economic stress

1.8% poverty · this tract

1.0

Supply constraint

$1,943 rent vs county FMR

3.4

Rent control risk

Inherited from Woodbridge

6.2

Eviction process difficulty

State law sets the calendar

3.1

Tenant organizing strength

Inherited from Woodbridge

8.4

Housing court bias

Inherited from Woodbridge

5.5

How Marumsco Hills compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.

CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 64

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

75%Socioeconomic
51%Household composition
88%Racial/ethnic minority
32%Housing & transportation

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Marumsco Hills. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

21.9%Housing insecurity
13.2%Utility-shutoff threat
28.0%Food insecurity
22.6%SNAP enrollment
13.7%Transit barriers
21.1%No health insurance
18.5%Frequent mental distress
38.0%Any disability

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Marumsco Hills

Well under the midpoint, economic stress reads 1/10. Against Prince William County at 43.3%, roughly one in three of renters here are cost-burdened. Sitting well above the midpoint, tenant-organizing strength reads 8.4/10.

Against the Prince William County average of 4.1, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 1.6 points. Food insecurity runs 28.0% against 17.8% nationally.

11% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears. Housing insecurity runs 21.9% against 14.2% nationally.

On the national scale it lands near the 74th percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored. CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 6.8/10. Statewide the VA average is 4.2, so this tract runs 1.5 points hotter.

Of its three components the socioeconomic standing measure is the most pressured. Poverty sits at 2%, low enough that arrears here usually signal a specific shock rather than a structural income gap.

All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.

Frequently asked

About tract 51153900503

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51153900503?

Census tract 51153900503 in the Marumsco Hills neighborhood scores 5.7/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.

What is the average rent in tract 51153900503?

Median gross rent is $1,943/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 34% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What is the poverty rate in tract 51153900503?

1.8% of residents in tract 51153900503 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,823.

How socially vulnerable is tract 51153900503?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 64th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 75th, household 51th, minority 88th, housing 32th.

Is tract 51153900503 considered part of Marumsco Hills?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51153900503 fall within Marumsco Hills (neighborhood centroid within 0.2 miles, OSM data).

What share of households in tract 51153900503 struggle to pay rent?

About 21.9% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 13.2% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.

How does tract 51153900503 compare to Woodbridge overall?

Tract 51153900503 scores 5.7/10, right in line with the parent city of Woodbridge at 5.9/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Woodbridge eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.

Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Woodbridge

Top eight tracts in Woodbridge ranked by composite eviction-risk score.