Neighborhood · Ranked #18,425 of 84,120 nationally

Marumsco Village Eviction Risk: Elevated , Woodbridge

Tract 51153900201 · Prince William County, VA · pop 2,441 · neighborhood within 0.4 mi

Census tract 51153900201 belongs to the Marumsco Village area of Woodbridge, Virginia. It is home to 2,441 residents and scores 6.5/10, an elevated reading for landlords. That is riskier than roughly 86% of the 84,120 US census tracts we score.

Rent eats 30% or more of income for 57% of renter households, a severe level, and 12% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average rent runs $1,993 a month against an average household income of $89,688 a year, roughly 27% of income at the averages. About 51% of occupied units are renter-occupied, a renter-majority tract.

Risk score

6.6

Elevated

Confidence 100% · 1-10 scale

Household mix · 100 hh

Burdened renters 29% Stable renters 22% Owners 49%

Tract context

Occupied units1,091

Renter share51.2%

SVI overall0.79

Poverty rate13.1%

Median income$89,688

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Woodbridge and the region

Centroid at 38.6642, -77.2519 · click any tract to drill in

Why Marumsco Village scores 6.6

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly

Local political climate

Inherited from Woodbridge

7.4

Regional political climate

2024 county presidential margin

6.4

State political climate

Virginia legislature & governorship

3.2

Economic stress

13.1% poverty · this tract

3.3

Supply constraint

$1,993 rent vs county FMR

3.6

Rent control risk

Inherited from Woodbridge

6.2

Eviction process difficulty

State law sets the calendar

3.1

Tenant organizing strength

Inherited from Woodbridge

8.4

Housing court bias

Inherited from Woodbridge

5.5

How Marumsco Village compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.

CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 79

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

82%Socioeconomic
74%Household composition
83%Racial/ethnic minority
52%Housing & transportation

Eviction filings · Princeton Eviction Lab

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.

Historic baseline (2000-2018)

7Total filings over 1 yrs
2.82%Avg annual filing rate
2.8%Peak (2016)
7Filings in 2016 (latest validated)

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Marumsco Village. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

17.7%Housing insecurity
11.0%Utility-shutoff threat
21.4%Food insecurity
17.0%SNAP enrollment
11.1%Transit barriers
15.3%No health insurance
17.7%Frequent mental distress
32.6%Any disability

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Marumsco Village

The heaviest input here is tenant organizing strength at 8.4/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Woodbridge eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores above the Prince William County average of 5.7 and above the Virginia statewide average of 5.3. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.

The tract is Hispanic or Latino and White and ranks around the 79th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. High vulnerability tends to track with higher eviction-filing rates when rents climb.

In CDC survey modeling, about 17.7% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 11.0% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.

For a landlord, this is a tract where process discipline pays off. Clean paperwork and steady screening keep the elevated risk manageable.

Frequently asked

About tract 51153900201

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 51153900201?

Census tract 51153900201 in the Marumsco Village neighborhood scores 6.6/10 (Elevated tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.

What is the average rent in tract 51153900201?

Median gross rent is $1,993/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 57% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What is the poverty rate in tract 51153900201?

13.1% of residents in tract 51153900201 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 2,441.

How socially vulnerable is tract 51153900201?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 79th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 82th, household 74th, minority 83th, housing 52th.

Is tract 51153900201 considered part of Marumsco Village?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 51153900201 fall within Marumsco Village (neighborhood centroid within 0.4 miles, OSM data).

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 51153900201?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 7 eviction filings across 1 validated years in tract 51153900201 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 2.82% of renter households, peaking at 2.8% in 2016. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.

What share of households in tract 51153900201 struggle to pay rent?

About 17.7% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 11.0% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.

How does tract 51153900201 compare to Woodbridge overall?

Tract 51153900201 scores 6.6/10, higher than the parent city of Woodbridge at 5.7/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Woodbridge eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.

Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Woodbridge

Top eight tracts in Woodbridge ranked by composite eviction-risk score.