Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #67,219 of 84,120 nationally
The Trails Eviction Risk: Lower , Chandler
Tract 04013812500 · Maricopa, AZ · pop 2,219 · neighborhood within 0.9 mi
Census tract 04013812500 covers part of the The Trails area of Chandler, AZ, and scores 3/10 on landlord eviction risk. It is home to 2,219 residents. 24% of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, far below the Maricopa County average of 46.0%.
Risk score
3
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 2%
Stable renters 8%
Owners 90%
Tract context
Occupied units612
Renter share10.1%
SVI overall0.11
Poverty rate0.2%
Median income$179,444
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
40
th percentile
Moderate
Within county
6
th percentile
Very Low
Within state
40
th percentile
Low
Geographic context
Risk heat across Chandler and the region
Centroid at 33.2689, -111.7843 · click any tract to drill in
Why The Trails scores 3
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Chandler
3.0
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.1
State political climate
Arizona legislature & governorship
2.2
Economic stress
0.2% poverty · this tract
1.0
Supply constraint
$2,484 rent vs county FMR
7.7
Rent control risk
Inherited from Chandler
1.0
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Chandler
2.0
Housing court bias
Inherited from Chandler
2.0
How The Trails compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 11
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 7%Socioeconomic
- 12%Household composition
- 65%Racial/ethnic minority
- 22%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 14Total filings over 3 yrs
- 107.08%Avg annual filing rate
- 92.5%Peak (2005)
- 11Filings in 2005 (latest validated)
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 7.6%Housing insecurity
- 4.2%Utility-shutoff threat
- 9.3%Food insecurity
- 5.4%SNAP enrollment
- 5.3%Transit barriers
- 7.1%No health insurance
- 12.9%Frequent mental distress
- 20.4%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in The Trails
Pulling hardest the other way is rent-regulation exposure at 1/10. On the softer side, economic stress reads 1/10.
Running hot, court filing pressure reads 8.9/10. At $2,484 a month, rents run 31% over what the rest of Chandler commands. The voucher gap is 27.4%: households holding assistance that local rents will not absorb, which surfaces as churn rather than arrears.
SNAP participation runs 5.4% against 15.2% nationally. Food insecurity runs 9.3% against 17.8% nationally. Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 14 filings here across 3 tracked years.
It sits 0.7 points below the Maricopa County average of 3.7. The worst year on record was 2005, when 92.5% of renter households were served. In a typical year about 107.1% of renter households face a filing.
That is riskier than roughly 20% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model. Only 10% of units are renter-occupied. Rental comparables are thin; price a renewal off the nearest genuine rental sub-market rather than off surrounding sale prices.
These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.
Frequently asked
About tract 04013812500
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 04013812500?
Census tract 04013812500 in the The Trails neighborhood scores 3/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 04013812500?
Median gross rent is $2,484/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 24% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 04013812500?
0.2% of residents in tract 04013812500 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 2,219.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 04013812500?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 11th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 7th, household 12th, minority 65th, housing 22th.
Q5
Is tract 04013812500 considered part of The Trails?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 04013812500 fall within The Trails (neighborhood centroid within 0.9 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 04013812500?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 14 eviction filings across 3 validated years in tract 04013812500 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 107.08% of renter households, peaking at 92.5% in 2005. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 04013812500 struggle to pay rent?
About 7.6% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 4.2% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 04013812500 compare to Chandler overall?
Tract 04013812500 scores 3/10, right in line with the parent city of Chandler at 3.2/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Chandler eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Chandler
Top eight tracts in Chandler ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · AZ
04013523102
4.6
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
04013522903
4.6
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
04013523002
4.6
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
Carrizal
4.4
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
04013522904
4.4
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
Hightown
3.9
/ 10 · Low
Tract · AZ
New Horizons
3.8
/ 10 · Low
Tract · AZ
04013523008
3.6
/ 10 · Low
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