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Neighborhood · Ranked #42,813 of 84,120 nationally

Carrizal Eviction Risk: Moderate , Chandler

Tract 04013523104 · Maricopa, AZ · pop 7,132 · neighborhood within 1.3 mi

With a score of 4.4/10, tract 04013523104 in the Carrizal area of Chandler, AZ reads moderate for landlord eviction risk. The severe-burden share is 40%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment.

Risk score
4.4
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 43% Stable renters 19% Owners 38%
Tract context
Occupied units2,859
Renter share62.4%
SVI overall0.77
Poverty rate16.2%
Median income$66,730

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
100 th percentile
Rank, 100th percentileLowHigh
#1 of 3 tracts In Carrizal
Very High
Within parent city
95 th percentile
Rank, 95th percentileLowHigh
#4 of 61 tracts In Chandler
Very High
Within county
71 th percentile
Rank, 71st percentileLowHigh
#292 of 1,009 tracts In Maricopa
Elevated
Within state
71 th percentile
Rank, 71st percentileLowHigh
#509 of 1,765 tracts In Arizona
Elevated
Geographic context

Risk heat across Chandler and the region

Centroid at 33.2993, -111.8494 · click any tract to drill in

Why Carrizal scores 4.4

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Chandler
3.0
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.1
State political climate
Arizona legislature & governorship
2.2
Economic stress
16.2% poverty · this tract
4.0
Supply constraint
$1,532 rent vs county FMR
2.9
Rent control risk
Inherited from Chandler
1.0
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Chandler
2.0
Housing court bias
Inherited from Chandler
2.0

How Carrizal compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Carrizal risk score vs. parent city / county / stateThis tract: 4.44.4This tracttract 523104Chandler: 3.23.2Chandlerparent cityCounty: 3.73.7Countyavg tract in countyState: 3.83.8Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 77

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 1,462Total filings over 5 yrs
  • 22.91%Avg annual filing rate
  • 30.9%Peak (2001)
  • 247Filings in 2005 (latest validated)
Filings by year 2001 to 2005
Year-by-year eviction filings in tract 040135231042001: 379 filings (30.86/100 renter HHs)2002: 308 filings (25.08/100 renter HHs)2003: 373 filings (30.37/100 renter HHs)2004: 155 filings (12.62/100 renter HHs)2005: 247 filings (15.64/100 renter HHs)
Filings dropped 35% over the past 5 months.
Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Carrizal. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Carrizal

69% of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, far above the Maricopa County average of 46.0%. Pulling hardest the other way is rent-regulation exposure at 1/10.

Sitting well above the midpoint, court filing pressure reads 8.9/10. On the softer side, tenant-organizing strength reads 2/10. At $1,532 a month, rents run 19% under what the rest of Chandler commands.

Court records carry 1,462 eviction filings across 5 observed years. It sits 0.7 points above the Maricopa County average of 3.7. Filings peaked in 2001 at 30.9% of renter households.

In a typical year about 22.9% of renter households face a filing. Nationally it ranks #42,813 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty. Social vulnerability reads 7.9/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks.

Of its three components the housing type and transport measure is the most pressured. Annual rent works out to 28% of average household income of $66,730.

All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.

Frequently asked

About tract 04013523104

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 04013523104?

Census tract 04013523104 in the Carrizal neighborhood scores 4.4/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 04013523104?

Median gross rent is $1,532/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 69% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 04013523104?

16.2% of residents in tract 04013523104 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 7,132.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 04013523104?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 77th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 68th, household 27th, minority 77th, housing 94th.
Q5

Is tract 04013523104 considered part of Carrizal?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 04013523104 fall within Carrizal (neighborhood centroid within 1.3 miles, OSM data).
Q6

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 04013523104?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 1,462 eviction filings across 5 validated years in tract 04013523104 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 22.91% of renter households, peaking at 30.9% in 2001. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7

What share of households in tract 04013523104 struggle to pay rent?

About 15.0% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 8.5% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8

How does tract 04013523104 compare to Chandler overall?

Tract 04013523104 scores 4.4/10, higher than the parent city of Chandler at 3.2/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Chandler eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Chandler

Top eight tracts in Chandler ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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