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Neighborhood · Ranked #54,273 of 84,120 nationally

Tuscany Shores at Desert Harbor Eviction Risk: Lower , Sun City

Tract 04013071516 · Maricopa, AZ · pop 4,363 · neighborhood within 0.8 mi

With a score of 3.7/10, tract 04013071516 in the Tuscany Shores at Desert Harbor area of Sun City, AZ reads lower for landlord eviction risk. Population here is 4,363. Severe burden reaches 39%. Those are renters paying half their income or more, and that is where non-payment filings originate.

Risk score
3.7
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 48% Stable renters 25% Owners 27%
Tract context
Occupied units2,312
Renter share72.8%
SVI overall0.77
Poverty rate8.6%
Median income$59,000

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
50 th percentile
Rank, 50th percentileLowHigh
#2 of 3 tracts In Tuscany Shores at Desert Harbor
Moderate
Within parent city
30 th percentile
Rank, 30th percentileLowHigh
#8 of 11 tracts In Sun City
Low
Within county
59 th percentile
Rank, 59th percentileLowHigh
#416 of 1,009 tracts In Maricopa
Elevated
Within state
57 th percentile
Rank, 57th percentileLowHigh
#756 of 1,765 tracts In Arizona
Elevated
Geographic context

Risk heat across Sun City and the region

Centroid at 33.6034, -112.2607 · click any tract to drill in

Why Tuscany Shores at Desert Harbor scores 3.7

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Sun City
5.6
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.1
State political climate
Arizona legislature & governorship
2.2
Economic stress
8.6% poverty · this tract
2.2
Supply constraint
$1,744 rent vs county FMR
3.9
Rent control risk
Inherited from Sun City
1.0
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
1.9
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Sun City
1.2
Housing court bias
Inherited from Sun City
2.1

How Tuscany Shores at Desert Harbor compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Tuscany Shores at Desert Harbor risk score vs. parent city / county / stateThis tract: 3.73.7This tracttract 071516Sun City: 3.23.2Sun Cityparent cityCounty: 3.73.7Countyavg tract in countyState: 3.83.8Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 77

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 237Total filings over 5 yrs
  • 22.93%Avg annual filing rate
  • 49.5%Peak (2004)
  • 56Filings in 2005 (latest validated)
Filings by year 2001 to 2005
Year-by-year eviction filings in tract 040130715162001: 6 filings (3.26/100 renter HHs)2002: 39 filings (21.19/100 renter HHs)2003: 45 filings (24.45/100 renter HHs)2004: 91 filings (49.45/100 renter HHs)2005: 56 filings (16.30/100 renter HHs)
Filings climbed 833% over the past 5 months.
Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Tuscany Shores at Desert Harbor. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Tuscany Shores at Desert Harbor

66% of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, well clear of the Maricopa County average of 46.0%. The clearest offset is rent-regulation exposure at 1/10. Sitting well above the midpoint, court filing pressure reads 8.9/10.

Set annual rent against average income of $59,000 and the ratio lands at 35%, above the conventional 30% ceiling. 73% of occupied units are rented, so comparables are plentiful and vacancy risk is low, but a mispriced renewal loses the tenant to a building nearby. Running cool, tenant-organizing strength reads 1.2/10.

The filing record is not thin: 237 evictions over 5 years of observation. SNAP participation runs 7.3% against 15.2% nationally.

Average gross rent is $1,744, 11% above the Sun City average. The worst year on record was 2004, when 49.5% of renter households were served. In a typical year about 22.9% of renter households face a filing.

Nationally it ranks #54,273 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty. On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 8/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here. Of its three components the household composition measure is the most pressured.

It tracks the Maricopa County average of 3.7 closely.

These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.

Frequently asked

About tract 04013071516

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 04013071516?

Census tract 04013071516 in the Tuscany Shores at Desert Harbor neighborhood scores 3.7/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 04013071516?

Median gross rent is $1,744/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 66% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 04013071516?

8.6% of residents in tract 04013071516 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,363.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 04013071516?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 77th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 45th, household 91th, minority 55th, housing 91th.
Q5

Is tract 04013071516 considered part of Tuscany Shores at Desert Harbor?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 04013071516 fall within Tuscany Shores at Desert Harbor (neighborhood centroid within 0.8 miles, OSM data).
Q6

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 04013071516?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 237 eviction filings across 5 validated years in tract 04013071516 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 22.93% of renter households, peaking at 49.5% in 2004. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7

What share of households in tract 04013071516 struggle to pay rent?

About 8.2% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 4.6% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8

How does tract 04013071516 compare to Sun City overall?

Tract 04013071516 scores 3.7/10, higher than the parent city of Sun City at 3.2/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Sun City eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Sun City

Top eight tracts in Sun City ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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