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Neighborhood · Ranked #56,660 of 84,120 nationally

Tuscany Shores at Desert Harbor Eviction Risk: Lower , Sun City

Tract 04013071516 · Maricopa, AZ · pop 4,363 · neighborhood within 0.8 mi

Tract 04013071516 covers Tuscany Shores at Desert Harbor in Sun City in Arizona. Home to 4,363 residents, it scores $1/10 on landlord eviction risk. It lands near the 40th percentile nationally for landlord eviction risk.

Rent eats 30% or more of income for 66% of renter households, a severe level, and 39% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average gross rent is $1,744 monthly, set against $59,000 in average yearly household income, roughly 35% of income at the averages. About 73% of occupied units are renter-occupied, a renter-majority tract.

Risk score
3.1
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 48% Stable renters 25% Owners 27%
Tract context
Occupied units2,312
Renter share72.8%
SVI overall0.77
Poverty rate8.6%
Median income$59,000

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
50 th percentile
Rank, 50th percentileLowHigh
#2 of 3 tracts In Tuscany Shores at Desert Harbor
Moderate
Within parent city
30 th percentile
Rank, 30th percentileLowHigh
#8 of 11 tracts In Sun City
Low
Within county
52 th percentile
Rank, 52nd percentileLowHigh
#490 of 1,009 tracts In Maricopa
Moderate
Within state
41 th percentile
Rank, 41st percentileLowHigh
#1,040 of 1,765 tracts In Arizona
Moderate
Geographic context

Risk heat across Sun City and the region

Centroid at 33.6034, -112.2607 · click any tract to drill in

Why Tuscany Shores at Desert Harbor scores 3.1

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Sun City
5.6
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.1
State political climate
Arizona legislature & governorship
2.2
Economic stress
8.6% poverty · this tract
2.2
Supply constraint
$1,744 rent vs county FMR
3.9
Rent control risk
Inherited from Sun City
1.0
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
1.9
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Sun City
1.2
Housing court bias
Inherited from Sun City
2.1

How Tuscany Shores at Desert Harbor compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Tuscany Shores at Desert Harbor risk score vs. parent city / county / stateThis tract: 3.13.1This tracttract 071516Sun City: 2.52.5Sun Cityparent cityCounty: 3.33.3Countyavg tract in countyState: 3.63.6Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 77

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 237Total filings over 5 yrs
  • 22.93%Avg annual filing rate
  • 49.5%Peak (2004)
  • 56Filings in 2005 (latest validated)
Filings by year 2001 to 2005
Year-by-year eviction filings in tract 040130715162001: 6 filings (3.26/100 renter HHs)2002: 39 filings (21.19/100 renter HHs)2003: 45 filings (24.45/100 renter HHs)2004: 91 filings (49.45/100 renter HHs)2005: 56 filings (16.30/100 renter HHs)
Filings climbed 833% over the past 5 months.
Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Tuscany Shores at Desert Harbor. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Tuscany Shores at Desert Harbor

The heaviest input here is supply constraint at 3.9/10. That part is specific to this tract, computed from its own rent, income, and poverty figures. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Sun City eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores about the same as the Maricopa County average of 5.1 and in line with the Arizona statewide average of 4.9. Within its own county it reads on the safer side for landlords.

Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 237 eviction filings here over 5 tracked years, with about 22.9% of renter households facing a filing in a typical year. Filings peaked at 49.5% of renter households in 2004.

In CDC survey modeling, about 8.2% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 4.6% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.

For a landlord, conditions here are middle-of-the-road. Standard screening and prompt, documented notices usually keep cases short.

Frequently asked

About tract 04013071516

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 04013071516?

Census tract 04013071516 in the Tuscany Shores at Desert Harbor neighborhood scores 3.1/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 04013071516?

Median gross rent is $1,744/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 66% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 04013071516?

8.6% of residents in tract 04013071516 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,363.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 04013071516?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 77th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 45th, household 91th, minority 55th, housing 91th.
Q5

Is tract 04013071516 considered part of Tuscany Shores at Desert Harbor?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 04013071516 fall within Tuscany Shores at Desert Harbor (neighborhood centroid within 0.8 miles, OSM data).
Q6

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 04013071516?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 237 eviction filings across 5 validated years in tract 04013071516 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 22.93% of renter households, peaking at 49.5% in 2004. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7

What share of households in tract 04013071516 struggle to pay rent?

About 8.2% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 4.6% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8

How does tract 04013071516 compare to Sun City overall?

Tract 04013071516 scores 3.1/10, higher than the parent city of Sun City at 2.5/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Sun City eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Sun City

Top eight tracts in Sun City ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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