Within neighborhood
100
th percentile
Very High
Neighborhood · Ranked #54,273 of 84,120 nationally
Tuscany Shores at Desert Harbor Eviction Risk: Lower , Sun City
Tract 04013071506 · Maricopa, AZ · pop 4,123 · neighborhood within 1.2 mi
04013071506 is a census tract in the Tuscany Shores at Desert Harbor area of Sun City, AZ. It scores 3.7/10 for landlords. It is home to 4,123 residents. Cost burden runs 64% here against 46.0% across Maricopa County.
Risk score
3.7
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 4%
Stable renters 2%
Owners 94%
Tract context
Occupied units2,479
Renter share6.4%
SVI overall0.17
Poverty rate7.5%
Median income$55,777
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
40
th percentile
Moderate
Within county
59
th percentile
Elevated
Within state
57
th percentile
Elevated
Geographic context
Risk heat across Sun City and the region
Centroid at 33.6251, -112.2658 · click any tract to drill in
Why Tuscany Shores at Desert Harbor scores 3.7
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Sun City
5.6
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.1
State political climate
Arizona legislature & governorship
2.2
Economic stress
7.5% poverty · this tract
1.9
Supply constraint
$1,638 rent vs county FMR
3.4
Rent control risk
Inherited from Sun City
1.0
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
1.9
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Sun City
1.2
Housing court bias
Inherited from Sun City
2.1
How Tuscany Shores at Desert Harbor compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 17
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 39%Socioeconomic
- 22%Household composition
- 7%Racial/ethnic minority
- 13%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 2Total filings over 2 yrs
- 1.11%Avg annual filing rate
- 1.1%Peak (2002)
- 1Filings in 2004 (latest validated)
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Tuscany Shores at Desert Harbor. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 4.2%Housing insecurity
- 2.8%Utility-shutoff threat
- 8.5%Food insecurity
- 6.6%SNAP enrollment
- 4.6%Transit barriers
- 6.4%No health insurance
- 9.5%Frequent mental distress
- 43.0%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Tuscany Shores at Desert Harbor
The severe-burden share is 31%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment. The clearest offset is rent-regulation exposure at 1/10. Sitting well above the midpoint, court filing pressure reads 8.9/10.
Set annual rent against average income of $55,777 and the ratio lands at 35%, above the conventional 30% ceiling. On the softer side, tenant-organizing strength reads 1.2/10. Food insecurity runs 8.5% against 17.8% nationally.
The filing record is not thin: 2 evictions over 2 years of observation. Inability to pay a utility bill runs 2.8% against 9.2% nationally. Utility arrears usually lead rent arrears by a month or two.
The worst year on record was 2002, when 1.1% of renter households were served. In a typical year about 1.1% of renter households face a filing.
That is riskier than roughly 35% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model. At 6% renter-occupied this is predominantly owner territory, and comps have to be drawn from further out.
These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.
Frequently asked
About tract 04013071506
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 04013071506?
Census tract 04013071506 in the Tuscany Shores at Desert Harbor neighborhood scores 3.7/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 04013071506?
Median gross rent is $1,638/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 64% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 04013071506?
7.5% of residents in tract 04013071506 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,123.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 04013071506?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 17th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 39th, household 22th, minority 7th, housing 13th.
Q5
Is tract 04013071506 considered part of Tuscany Shores at Desert Harbor?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 04013071506 fall within Tuscany Shores at Desert Harbor (neighborhood centroid within 1.2 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 04013071506?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 2 eviction filings across 2 validated years in tract 04013071506 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 1.11% of renter households, peaking at 1.1% in 2002. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 04013071506 struggle to pay rent?
About 4.2% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 2.8% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 04013071506 compare to Sun City overall?
Tract 04013071506 scores 3.7/10, higher than the parent city of Sun City at 3.2/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Sun City eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Sun City
Top eight tracts in Sun City ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · AZ
04013071505
4.6
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
Pueblo El Mirage RV Resort
4.6
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
04013071801
4.6
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
04013071802
4.5
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
04013071504
3.9
/ 10 · Low
Tract · AZ
Westbrook Village
3.8
/ 10 · Low
Tract · AZ
Tuscany Shores at Desert Harbor
3.7
/ 10 · Low
Tract · AZ
Westbrook Village
3.6
/ 10 · Low
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