Within neighborhood
0
th percentile
Very Low
Neighborhood · Ranked #67,219 of 84,120 nationally
Tuscany Shores at Desert Harbor Eviction Risk: Lower , Sun City
Tract 04013071515 · Maricopa, AZ · pop 3,890 · neighborhood within 0.4 mi
04013071515 is a census tract in the Tuscany Shores at Desert Harbor area of Peoria, AZ. It scores 3/10 for landlords. It is home to 3,890 residents. 66% of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, far above the Maricopa County average of 46.0%.
Risk score
3
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 24%
Stable renters 12%
Owners 64%
Tract context
Occupied units1,898
Renter share36.6%
SVI overall0.52
Poverty rate8.0%
Median income$82,611
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
42
th percentile
Moderate
Within county
37
th percentile
Low
Within state
40
th percentile
Low
Geographic context
Risk heat across Sun City and the region
Centroid at 33.6165, -112.2477 · click any tract to drill in
Why Tuscany Shores at Desert Harbor scores 3
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Sun City
3.0
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.1
State political climate
Arizona legislature & governorship
2.2
Economic stress
8.0% poverty · this tract
2.0
Supply constraint
$1,757 rent vs county FMR
4.0
Rent control risk
Inherited from Sun City
1.0
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Sun City
2.0
Housing court bias
Inherited from Sun City
2.5
How Tuscany Shores at Desert Harbor compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 52
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 40%Socioeconomic
- 42%Household composition
- 47%Racial/ethnic minority
- 73%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 317Total filings over 5 yrs
- 19.82%Avg annual filing rate
- 34.3%Peak (2003)
- 76Filings in 2005 (latest validated)
Filings climbed 660% over the past 5 months.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Tuscany Shores at Desert Harbor. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 7.4%Housing insecurity
- 4.3%Utility-shutoff threat
- 9.9%Food insecurity
- 6.7%SNAP enrollment
- 5.9%Transit barriers
- 8.5%No health insurance
- 13.3%Frequent mental distress
- 30.4%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Tuscany Shores at Desert Harbor
34% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears. The clearest offset is rent-regulation exposure at 1/10. On the high side, court filing pressure reads 8.9/10.
Well under the midpoint, tenant-organizing strength reads 2/10. SNAP participation runs 6.7% against 15.2% nationally.
Court records carry 317 eviction filings across 5 observed years. Food insecurity runs 9.9% against 17.8% nationally. Against the Maricopa County average of 3.7, this tract reads safer for landlords by 0.7 points.
The worst year on record was 2003, when 34.3% of renter households were served. In a typical year about 19.8% of renter households face a filing. Nationally it ranks #67,219 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty.
Social vulnerability reads 5.7/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks.
All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.
Frequently asked
About tract 04013071515
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 04013071515?
Census tract 04013071515 in the Tuscany Shores at Desert Harbor neighborhood scores 3/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 04013071515?
Median gross rent is $1,757/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 66% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 04013071515?
8.0% of residents in tract 04013071515 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,890.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 04013071515?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 52th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 40th, household 42th, minority 47th, housing 73th.
Q5
Is tract 04013071515 considered part of Tuscany Shores at Desert Harbor?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 04013071515 fall within Tuscany Shores at Desert Harbor (neighborhood centroid within 0.4 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 04013071515?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 317 eviction filings across 5 validated years in tract 04013071515 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 19.82% of renter households, peaking at 34.3% in 2003. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 04013071515 struggle to pay rent?
About 7.4% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 4.3% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 04013071515 compare to Sun City overall?
Tract 04013071515 scores 3/10, right in line with the parent city of Sun City at 3.2/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Sun City eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Sun City
Top eight tracts in Sun City ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · AZ
Westbrook Village
4.6
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
04013092724
4.6
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
Deer Creek
4.6
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
04013071912
4.6
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
Bristle Manor
4.6
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
Peacock Village
4
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
04013071909
4
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
Olive West
3.8
/ 10 · Low
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