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Neighborhood · Ranked #39,308 of 84,120 nationally

Agua Fria Eviction Risk: Moderate , El Mirage

Tract 04013060904 · Maricopa, AZ · pop 4,035 · neighborhood within 0.3 mi

Tract 04013060904 sits in the Agua Fria area of El Mirage eviction risk, AZ, carrying an eviction-risk score of 4.6/10. Population here is 4,035. What pushes it up most is court filing pressure at 8.9/10.

Risk score
4.6
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 20% Stable renters 15% Owners 65%
Tract context
Occupied units1,205
Renter share35.4%
SVI overall0.81
Poverty rate13.2%
Median income$74,495

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
60 th percentile
Rank, 60th percentileLowHigh
#3 of 6 tracts In Agua Fria
Elevated
Within parent city
63 th percentile
Rank, 63rd percentileLowHigh
#4 of 9 tracts In El Mirage
Elevated
Within county
80 th percentile
Rank, 80th percentileLowHigh
#206 of 1,009 tracts In Maricopa
High
Within state
78 th percentile
Rank, 78th percentileLowHigh
#397 of 1,765 tracts In Arizona
High
Geographic context

Risk heat across El Mirage and the region

Centroid at 33.6017, -112.3110 · click any tract to drill in

Why Agua Fria scores 4.6

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from El Mirage
5.6
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.1
State political climate
Arizona legislature & governorship
2.2
Economic stress
13.2% poverty · this tract
3.3
Supply constraint
$1,656 rent vs county FMR
3.5
Rent control risk
Inherited from El Mirage
5.6
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.2
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from El Mirage
6.6
Housing court bias
Inherited from El Mirage
6.0

How Agua Fria compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Agua Fria risk score vs. parent city / county / stateThis tract: 4.64.6This tracttract 060904El Mirage: 4.04.0El Mirageparent cityCounty: 3.73.7Countyavg tract in countyState: 3.83.8Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 81

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 107Total filings over 5 yrs
  • 12.51%Avg annual filing rate
  • 12.2%Peak (2005)
  • 31Filings in 2005 (latest validated)
Filings by year 2001 to 2005
Year-by-year eviction filings in tract 040130609042001: 13 filings (8.62/100 renter HHs)2002: 17 filings (11.27/100 renter HHs)2003: 20 filings (13.25/100 renter HHs)2004: 26 filings (17.23/100 renter HHs)2005: 31 filings (12.16/100 renter HHs)
Filings climbed 138% over the past 5 months.
Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Agua Fria. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Agua Fria

58% of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, well above the Maricopa County average of 46.0%. 20% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears.

Well under the midpoint, state political climate reads 2.2/10. Adults with no health insurance runs 22.9% against 11.3% nationally.

On the softer side, eviction-process difficulty reads 2.2/10. Food insecurity runs 28.7% against 17.8% nationally.

The filing record is not thin: 107 evictions over 5 years of observation. It sits 0.9 points above the Maricopa County average of 3.7.

The worst year on record was 2005, when 12.2% of renter households were served. At $1,656 a month, rents run 8% under what the rest of El Mirage commands.

In a typical year about 12.5% of renter households face a filing. Nationally it ranks #39,308 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty.

On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 8.3/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here.

These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.

Frequently asked

About tract 04013060904

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 04013060904?

Census tract 04013060904 in the Agua Fria neighborhood scores 4.6/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 04013060904?

Median gross rent is $1,656/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 58% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 04013060904?

13.2% of residents in tract 04013060904 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,035.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 04013060904?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 81th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 88th, household 86th, minority 78th, housing 38th.
Q5

Is tract 04013060904 considered part of Agua Fria?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 04013060904 fall within Agua Fria (neighborhood centroid within 0.3 miles, OSM data).
Q6

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 04013060904?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 107 eviction filings across 5 validated years in tract 04013060904 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 12.51% of renter households, peaking at 12.2% in 2005. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7

What share of households in tract 04013060904 struggle to pay rent?

About 21.0% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 11.7% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8

How does tract 04013060904 compare to El Mirage overall?

Tract 04013060904 scores 4.6/10, higher than the parent city of El Mirage at 4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from El Mirage eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in El Mirage

Top eight tracts in El Mirage ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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