Within neighborhood
100
th percentile
Very High
Neighborhood · Ranked #24,859 of 84,120 nationally
Agua Fria Eviction Risk: Moderate , El Mirage
Tract 04013060902 · Maricopa, AZ · pop 3,805 · neighborhood within 0.8 mi
Tract 04013060902 sits in the Agua Fria area of El Mirage eviction risk, AZ, carrying an eviction-risk score of 5.4/10. Average gross rent is $1,031, 43% below the El Mirage average.
Risk score
5.4
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 15%
Stable renters 27%
Owners 58%
Tract context
Occupied units1,201
Renter share42.6%
SVI overall0.93
Poverty rate25.8%
Median income$49,313
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
88
th percentile
High
Within county
98
th percentile
Very High
Within state
98
th percentile
Very High
Geographic context
Risk heat across El Mirage and the region
Centroid at 33.6121, -112.3262 · click any tract to drill in
Why Agua Fria scores 5.4
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from El Mirage
5.6
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.1
State political climate
Arizona legislature & governorship
2.2
Economic stress
25.8% poverty · this tract
6.5
Supply constraint
$1,031 rent vs county FMR
1.0
Rent control risk
Inherited from El Mirage
5.6
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.2
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from El Mirage
6.6
Housing court bias
Inherited from El Mirage
6.0
How Agua Fria compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 93
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 94%Socioeconomic
- 91%Household composition
- 89%Racial/ethnic minority
- 70%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 83Total filings over 5 yrs
- 7.55%Avg annual filing rate
- 10.5%Peak (2004)
- 18Filings in 2005 (latest validated)
Filings climbed 100% over the past 5 months.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Agua Fria. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 27.6%Housing insecurity
- 15.5%Utility-shutoff threat
- 41.2%Food insecurity
- 32.6%SNAP enrollment
- 19.2%Transit barriers
- 34.1%No health insurance
- 18.4%Frequent mental distress
- 44.0%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Agua Fria
Food insecurity runs 41.2% against 17.8% nationally. Adults with no health insurance runs 34.1% against 11.3% nationally.
The main counterweight is supply constraint at 1/10. Running hot, court filing pressure reads 8.9/10. 36% of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, lower than the Maricopa County average of 46.0%.
It sits 1.7 points above the Maricopa County average of 3.7. The poverty rate is 26%. Judgments in high-poverty tracts are collectible far less often than filing counts suggest. Well under the midpoint, state political climate reads 2.2/10.
The severe-burden share is 12%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment. The filing record is not thin: 83 evictions over 5 years of observation. The worst year on record was 2004, when 10.5% of renter households were served.
In a typical year about 7.6% of renter households face a filing.
All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.
Frequently asked
About tract 04013060902
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 04013060902?
Census tract 04013060902 in the Agua Fria neighborhood scores 5.4/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 04013060902?
Median gross rent is $1,031/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 36% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 04013060902?
25.8% of residents in tract 04013060902 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,805.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 04013060902?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 93th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 94th, household 91th, minority 89th, housing 70th.
Q5
Is tract 04013060902 considered part of Agua Fria?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 04013060902 fall within Agua Fria (neighborhood centroid within 0.8 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 04013060902?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 83 eviction filings across 5 validated years in tract 04013060902 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 7.55% of renter households, peaking at 10.5% in 2004. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 04013060902 struggle to pay rent?
About 27.6% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 15.5% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 04013060902 compare to El Mirage overall?
Tract 04013060902 scores 5.4/10, higher than the parent city of El Mirage at 4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from El Mirage eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in El Mirage
Top eight tracts in El Mirage ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · AZ
Pueblo El Mirage RV Resort
5.4
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
Agua Fria
4.9
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
Agua Fria
4.6
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
Agua Fria
4.3
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
Agua Fria
4.2
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
Surprise Original Townsite
4.1
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
Pueblo El Mirage RV & Golf Resort
3.9
/ 10 · Low
Tract · AZ
Agua Fria
3.6
/ 10 · Low
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