Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #67,219 of 84,120 nationally
Ashton Ranch Eviction Risk: Lower , Surprise
Tract 04013061034 · Maricopa, AZ · pop 8,334 · neighborhood within 0.8 mi
Census tract 04013061034 covers part of the Ashton Ranch area of Surprise, AZ, and scores 3/10 on landlord eviction risk. Population here is 8,334. around two-thirds of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, well above the Maricopa County average of 46.0%.
Risk score
3
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 22%
Stable renters 12%
Owners 66%
Tract context
Occupied units2,615
Renter share33.2%
SVI overall0.34
Poverty rate7.1%
Median income$94,458
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
39
th percentile
Low
Within county
40
th percentile
Low
Within state
40
th percentile
Low
Geographic context
Risk heat across Surprise and the region
Centroid at 33.6165, -112.3679 · click any tract to drill in
Why Ashton Ranch scores 3
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Surprise
2.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.1
State political climate
Arizona legislature & governorship
2.2
Economic stress
7.1% poverty · this tract
1.8
Supply constraint
$1,841 rent vs county FMR
4.4
Rent control risk
Inherited from Surprise
1.0
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Surprise
1.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Surprise
2.0
How Ashton Ranch compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 34
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 29%Socioeconomic
- 33%Household composition
- 55%Racial/ethnic minority
- 44%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 15Total filings over 2 yrs
- 112.52%Avg annual filing rate
- 34.4%Peak (2005)
- 13Filings in 2005 (latest validated)
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 10.6%Housing insecurity
- 6.0%Utility-shutoff threat
- 12.8%Food insecurity
- 8.5%SNAP enrollment
- 7.5%Transit barriers
- 10.2%No health insurance
- 16.0%Frequent mental distress
- 25.4%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Ashton Ranch
The main counterweight is rent-regulation exposure at 1/10. Sitting well above the midpoint, court filing pressure reads 8.9/10.
The severe-burden share is 24%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment. Running cool, tenant-organizing strength reads 1.5/10.
Court records carry 15 eviction filings across 2 observed years. It sits 0.7 points below the Maricopa County average of 3.7.
Average gross rent is $1,841, 9% below the Surprise average. The worst year on record was 2005, when 34.4% of renter households were served.
In a typical year about 112.5% of renter households face a filing. Nationally it ranks #67,219 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty. On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 4.1/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here.
Annual rent works out to 23% of average household income of $94,458. 33% of occupied units are renter-occupied.
Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.
Frequently asked
About tract 04013061034
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 04013061034?
Census tract 04013061034 in the Ashton Ranch neighborhood scores 3/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 04013061034?
Median gross rent is $1,841/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 65% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 04013061034?
7.1% of residents in tract 04013061034 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 8,334.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 04013061034?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 34th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 29th, household 33th, minority 55th, housing 44th.
Q5
Is tract 04013061034 considered part of Ashton Ranch?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 04013061034 fall within Ashton Ranch (neighborhood centroid within 0.8 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 04013061034?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 15 eviction filings across 2 validated years in tract 04013061034 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 112.52% of renter households, peaking at 34.4% in 2005. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 04013061034 struggle to pay rent?
About 10.6% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 6.0% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 04013061034 compare to Surprise overall?
Tract 04013061034 scores 3/10, right in line with the parent city of Surprise at 3.2/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Surprise eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Surprise
Top eight tracts in Surprise ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · AZ
Surprise Original Townsite
4.6
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
Shawnee Village
3.8
/ 10 · Low
Tract · AZ
Veramonte
3.7
/ 10 · Low
Tract · AZ
Arapaho Village
3.7
/ 10 · Low
Tract · AZ
Surprise Original Townsite
3.7
/ 10 · Low
Tract · AZ
Arizona Traditions
3.6
/ 10 · Low
Tract · AZ
Bell West Ranch
3.4
/ 10 · Low
Tract · AZ
Sierra
3.3
/ 10 · Low
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