Neighborhood · Surprise, AZ

Ashton Ranch Eviction Risk: Lower

1 census tracts · pop 8,334 · pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score 2.2/10 · range 2.2–2.2

Ashton Ranch is a white (non-hispanic) neighborhood in Surprise with 1 census tract and a population of 8,334 residents. The neighborhood's pop-weighted eviction-risk score of 2.2/10 (Lower tier) blends state law, county-level filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty. 65% of renters here pay at least 30% of household income on rent, and 24% are severely cost-burdened (≥50% of income). Average gross rent of $1,841/month sits 9% lower than the Surprise citywide average ($2,033).

Risk score

2.2

Lower

1 tracts · population-weighted

Ashton Ranch vs Surprise How this neighborhood stacks against the citywide average

% of income on rent

64.8% +101%

Surprise: 32.2%

Average gross rent

$1,841 -9%

Surprise: $2,033

Average HH income

$94,458 +1%

Surprise: $93,371

Poverty rate

7.1% -9%

Surprise: 7.8%

Renter share

33.2% +59%

Surprise: 20.9%

Peer neighborhoods

Neighborhoods with similar eviction risk

Same county, closest by Eviction Risk Score.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Ashton Ranch and the region

Click any tract to drill in · 1 tracts span score 2.2–2.2

Why Ashton Ranch scores 2.2

9 axes · pop-weighted · 1 = landlord-friendly

State political climate

legislature & governorship · Range 2.2–2.2 across tracts

2.2

Regional political climate

County-level mix · 2024 presidential margin · Range 5.1–5.1 across tracts

5.1

Local political climate

Parent city governance · Range 2.5–2.5 across tracts

2.5

Rent control risk

65% of income on rent · Range 1.0–1.0 across tracts

1.0

Eviction process difficulty

State notice requirements & court backlog · Range 2.5–2.5 across tracts

2.5

Tenant organizing strength

33% renter households · Range 1.5–1.5 across tracts

1.5

Housing court bias

County bench composition · Range 2.0–2.0 across tracts

2.0

Economic stress

7.1% below poverty line · Range 1.8–1.8 across tracts

1.8

Supply constraint

Rent-to-FMR gap & zoning friction · Range 4.4–4.4 across tracts

4.4

Risk score comparison

Ashton Ranch vs. parent city, state, U.S.

Eviction Risk Score (0–10 scale).

Census tracts

1 tracts in Ashton Ranch

Ranked highest-risk first. Click for per-tract detail.

Tract↕	Score↕	Pop↕	% over 30% on rent↕	Average rent↕
04013061034	2.2	8,334	65%	$1,841

Social Vulnerability Index

CDC SVI percentile: 34

Pop-weighted across 1 tracts. Higher = more vulnerable to disaster, displacement, and rent shocks. Source: CDC/ATSDR SVI 2022.

Socioeconomic status 29%ile

Poverty, unemployment, no-HS-diploma, housing cost burden

Household characteristics 33%ile

Single-parent HH, disability, language barriers, age 17- / 65+

Racial/ethnic minority 55%ile

Hispanic + non-white share of population

Housing & transport 44%ile

Multi-unit structures, mobile homes, crowding, no vehicle

Eviction filings · Princeton Eviction Lab

Court-record eviction history in Ashton Ranch

Aggregated across 1 validated constituent tract. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households, pop-weighted.

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

15Total filings (sum)
112.52%Avg annual filing rate
34.4%Peak year (2005)
34.36%Latest filed (2005)

CDC PLACES 2023 · pop-weighted

Eviction-adjacent indicators in Ashton Ranch

Average across all constituent tracts, population-weighted. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh) crude prevalence.

10.6%Housing insecurity
6.0%Utility shutoff threat
12.8%Food insecurity
8.5%SNAP enrollment
10.2%No health insurance
25.4%Any disability

Frequently asked

About Ashton Ranch

What is the eviction-risk score for Ashton Ranch?

Ashton Ranch scores 2.2/10 (Lower tier) across 1 census tracts. The pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income and poverty signals.

How does Ashton Ranch compare to Surprise overall?

Ashton Ranch scores 0.2 points lower than Surprise overall (2.4/10). Renters spend 65% of income on rent vs 32% citywide. Average rent: $1,841 vs $2,033.

What is the average rent in Ashton Ranch?

Average gross rent in Ashton Ranch is $1,841/month (pop-weighted across 1 census tracts, ACS 5-year 2023). 65% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What percentage of Ashton Ranch residents are renters?

33% of Ashton Ranch households are renter-occupied (vs 21% in Surprise). The neighborhood has 8,334 residents.

Is Ashton Ranch a high social-vulnerability area?

Ashton Ranch sits in the 34th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index (less vulnerable). The index combines poverty, unemployment, household composition, racial/ethnic minority share, and housing/transportation factors across all US census tracts.

How safe is Ashton Ranch for landlords?

Ashton Ranch carries a lower-tier eviction-risk profile for landlords (2.2/10). Pop-weighted across 1 constituent tracts, the score blends parent-city rent-control posture, county eviction-process timelines, and tract-specific rent-to-income / poverty signals. Compared to Surprise as a whole (2.4/10), this neighborhood is in line with the citywide level.

What is the demographic breakdown of Ashton Ranch?

Ashton Ranch has 8,391 residents (White (non-Hispanic) Neighborhood). Top groups: White (non-Hispanic) (67.9%), Other / Multiracial (10.7%), Hispanic / Latino (10.6%). Source: ACS 5-year 2023, table B03002.

Nearby

Other neighborhoods near Ashton Ranch

2.1 Sanalina 2 tracts · pop 11,617 3.2 Surprise Original Townsite 4 tracts · pop 22,873 2.2 Veramonte 2 tracts · pop 10,712 2.9 Shawnee Village 2 tracts · pop 10,296 3.8 Agua Fria 6 tracts · pop 25,957 2.4 Acoma Court 2 tracts · pop 12,271

Sibling neighborhoods

Other neighborhoods inside Surprise

Same parent city, ranked by score similarity to Ashton Ranch.

2.2 Kingswood Parke 2 tracts · pop 6,961 2.1 Sanalina 2 tracts · pop 11,617 2.1 Veramonte 2 tracts · pop 10,712 2.4 Acoma Court 2 tracts · pop 12,271 2.4 Bell West Ranch 2 tracts · pop 10,747 2.6 Taos 1 tracts · pop 5,970

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