1 census tracts · pop 8,334 · pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score 3/10
· range 3–3
Ashton Ranch is a one-tract neighborhood of Surprise, AZ and houses 8,334 people. The Eviction Risk Score is 3/10, in the Lower tier. Against a Surprise baseline of 32.2%, 65% of renters here cross the 30%-of-income line.
The main counterweight is rent-regulation exposure, at 1/10. 24% are severely burdened, paying half their income or more in rent. That cohort has no absorption capacity for an unexpected bill, and it is where non-payment filings originate.
Running cool is tenant-organizing strength, at 1.5/10. Well under the midpoint is economic stress, at 1.8/10. Court records for this tract carry 15 eviction filings.
The worst year on record was 2005, when filings touched 34.4% of renter households. At $1,841 a month, rents sit 9% under what the rest of Surprise commands.
Among the 16 mapped neighborhoods of Surprise, it ranks #9 by risk, the middle third. Judgments average 10.6% of renter households a year, the share of filings that actually convert to an order.
Annual rent works out to 23% of average household income of $94,458. 33% of occupied units are renter-occupied.
One tract means one number: 3/10 applies directly to any address inside the boundary. The number is rebuilt whenever its ACS, court-record, or statutory inputs change.
Risk score
3
Lower
1 tracts · population-weighted
Ashton Ranch vs SurpriseHow this neighborhood stacks against the citywide average
Single-parent HH, disability, language barriers, age 17- / 65+
Racial/ethnic minority55%ile
Hispanic + non-white share of population
Housing & transport44%ile
Multi-unit structures, mobile homes, crowding, no vehicle
Eviction filings · Princeton Eviction Lab
Court-record eviction history in Ashton Ranch
Aggregated across 1 validated constituent tract. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households, pop-weighted.
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
15Total filings (sum)
112.52%Avg annual filing rate
34.4%Peak year (2005)
34.36%Latest filed (2005)
CDC PLACES 2023 · pop-weighted
Eviction-adjacent indicators in Ashton Ranch
Average across all constituent tracts, population-weighted. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh) crude prevalence.
10.6%Housing insecurity
6.0%Utility shutoff threat
12.8%Food insecurity
8.5%SNAP enrollment
10.2%No health insurance
25.4%Any disability
Frequently asked
About Ashton Ranch
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for Ashton Ranch?
Ashton Ranch scores 3/10 (Lower tier) across 1 census tracts. The pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income and poverty signals.
Q2
How does Ashton Ranch compare to Surprise overall?
Ashton Ranch scores 0.2 points lower than Surprise overall (3.2/10). Renters spend 65% of income on rent vs 32% citywide. Average rent: $1,841 vs $2,033.
Q3
What is the average rent in Ashton Ranch?
Average gross rent in Ashton Ranch is $1,841/month (pop-weighted across 1 census tracts, ACS 5-year 2023). 65% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q4
What percentage of Ashton Ranch residents are renters?
33% of Ashton Ranch households are renter-occupied (vs 21% in Surprise). The neighborhood has 8,334 residents.
Q5
Is Ashton Ranch a high social-vulnerability area?
Ashton Ranch sits in the 34th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index (less vulnerable). The index combines poverty, unemployment, household composition, racial/ethnic minority share, and housing/transportation factors across all US census tracts.
Q6
How safe is Ashton Ranch for landlords?
Ashton Ranch carries a lower-tier eviction-risk profile for landlords (3/10). Pop-weighted across 1 constituent tracts, the score blends parent-city rent-control posture, county eviction-process timelines, and tract-specific rent-to-income / poverty signals. Compared to Surprise as a whole (3.2/10), this neighborhood is in line with the citywide level.
Q7
What is the demographic breakdown of Ashton Ranch?
Ashton Ranch has 8,391 residents. Top groups: White (non-Hispanic) (67.9%), Other / Multiracial (10.7%), Hispanic / Latino (10.6%). Source: ACS 5-year 2023, table B03002.
