Neighborhood · Ranked #67,219 of 84,120 nationally
Sarah Ann Ranch Eviction Risk: Lower , Surprise
Tract 04013061031 ·
Maricopa, AZ · pop 6,938 · neighborhood within 0.5 mi
04013061031 is a census tract in the Sarah Ann Ranch area of Surprise, AZ. It scores 3/10 for landlords. Pulling hardest the other way is rent-regulation exposure at 1/10.
Risk score
3
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 5%Stable renters 7%Owners 88%
Tract context
Occupied units2,676
Renter share11.7%
SVI overall0.34
Poverty rate1.2%
Median income$111,925
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
50th percentile
#1 of 1 tracts In Sarah Ann Ranch
Moderate
Within parent city
25th percentile
#22 of 29 tracts In Surprise
Low
Within county
40th percentile
#608 of 1,009 tracts In Maricopa
Low
Within state
40th percentile
#1,065 of 1,765 tracts In Arizona
Low
Geographic context
Risk heat across Surprise and the region
Centroid at 33.5971, -112.4332 · click any tract to drill in
Why Sarah Ann Ranch scores 3
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Surprise
2.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.1
State political climate
Arizona legislature & governorship
2.2
Economic stress
1.2% poverty · this tract
1.0
Supply constraint
$1,825 rent vs county FMR
4.4
Rent control risk
Inherited from Surprise
1.0
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Surprise
1.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Surprise
2.0
How Sarah Ann Ranch compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 34
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
23%Socioeconomic
28%Household composition
60%Racial/ethnic minority
53%Housing & transportation
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
10.0%Housing insecurity
5.8%Utility-shutoff threat
12.0%Food insecurity
8.1%SNAP enrollment
7.0%Transit barriers
9.3%No health insurance
15.3%Frequent mental distress
25.7%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Sarah Ann Ranch
Well under the midpoint, economic stress reads 1/10. Running hot, court filing pressure reads 8.9/10.
The severe-burden share is 18%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment. SNAP participation runs 8.1% against 15.2% nationally. It sits 0.7 points below the Maricopa County average of 3.7.
Average gross rent is $1,825, 10% below the Surprise average. On the national scale it lands near the 20th percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored.
Only 12% of units are renter-occupied. Rental comparables are thin; price a renewal off the nearest genuine rental sub-market rather than off surrounding sale prices. CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 4/10. Of its three components the socioeconomic standing measure is the least pressured.
Poverty sits at 1%, low enough that arrears here usually signal a specific shock rather than a structural income gap. Rent takes 30% or more of income for 44% of renters.
Annual rent works out to 20% of average household income of $111,925.
Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.
Frequently asked
About tract 04013061031
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 04013061031?
Census tract 04013061031 in the Sarah Ann Ranch neighborhood scores 3/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 04013061031?
Median gross rent is $1,825/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 44% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 04013061031?
1.2% of residents in tract 04013061031 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 6,938.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 04013061031?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 34th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 23th, household 28th, minority 60th, housing 53th.
Q5
Is tract 04013061031 considered part of Sarah Ann Ranch?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 04013061031 fall within Sarah Ann Ranch (neighborhood centroid within 0.5 miles, OSM data).
Q6
What share of households in tract 04013061031 struggle to pay rent?
About 10.0% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 5.8% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7
How does tract 04013061031 compare to Surprise overall?
Tract 04013061031 scores 3/10, right in line with the parent city of Surprise at 3.2/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Surprise eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Surprise
Top eight tracts in Surprise ranked by composite eviction-risk score.