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Neighborhood · Ranked #39,308 of 84,120 nationally

Mesa Patios Eviction Risk: Moderate

Tract 04013421001 · Maricopa, AZ · pop 3,824 · neighborhood within 0.9 mi

Tract 04013421001 sits in the Mesa Patios area of Mesa eviction risk, AZ, carrying an eviction-risk score of 4.6/10. Severe burden reaches 45%. Those are renters paying half their income or more, and that is where non-payment filings originate.

Risk score
4.6
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 47% Stable renters 21% Owners 32%
Tract context
Occupied units1,808
Renter share68.7%
SVI overall0.99
Poverty rate26.0%
Median income$48,718

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
100 th percentile
Rank, 100th percentileLowHigh
#1 of 7 tracts In Mesa Patios
Very High
Within parent city
86 th percentile
Rank, 86th percentileLowHigh
#20 of 133 tracts In Mesa
High
Within county
78 th percentile
Rank, 78th percentileLowHigh
#228 of 1,009 tracts In Maricopa
High
Within state
78 th percentile
Rank, 78th percentileLowHigh
#397 of 1,765 tracts In Arizona
High
Geographic context

Risk heat across Mesa and the region

Centroid at 33.4296, -111.8356 · click any tract to drill in

Why Mesa Patios scores 4.6

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Mesa
3.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.1
State political climate
Arizona legislature & governorship
2.2
Economic stress
26.0% poverty · this tract
6.5
Supply constraint
$1,311 rent vs county FMR
1.7
Rent control risk
Inherited from Mesa
1.0
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Mesa
2.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Mesa
2.5

How Mesa Patios compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Mesa Patios risk score vs. parent city / county / stateThis tract: 4.64.6This tracttract 421001Mesa: 3.23.2Mesaparent cityCounty: 3.73.7Countyavg tract in countyState: 3.83.8Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 99

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 875Total filings over 5 yrs
  • 15.76%Avg annual filing rate
  • 24.7%Peak (2005)
  • 245Filings in 2005 (latest validated)
Filings by year 2001 to 2005
Year-by-year eviction filings in tract 040134210012001: 138 filings (11.85/100 renter HHs)2002: 167 filings (14.34/100 renter HHs)2003: 139 filings (11.93/100 renter HHs)2004: 186 filings (15.97/100 renter HHs)2005: 245 filings (24.72/100 renter HHs)
Filings climbed 78% over the past 5 months.
Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Mesa Patios. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Mesa Patios

Cost burden runs roughly two in three here against 46.0% across Maricopa County. Pulling hardest the other way is rent-regulation exposure at 1/10. On the high side, court filing pressure reads 8.9/10.

Set annual rent against average income of $48,718 and the ratio lands at 32%, above the conventional 30% ceiling. This is renter territory: 69% of occupied units are tenant-occupied.

Running cool, supply constraint reads 1.7/10. The poverty rate is 26%. Judgments in high-poverty tracts are collectible far less often than filing counts suggest.

Average gross rent is $1,311, 19% below the Mesa average. Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 875 filings here across 5 tracked years.

It sits 0.9 points above the Maricopa County average of 3.7. The worst year on record was 2005, when 24.7% of renter households were served.

In a typical year about 15.8% of renter households face a filing. That is riskier than roughly 53% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model.

Social vulnerability reads 9.9/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks. Of its three components the housing type and transport measure is the most pressured.

These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.

Frequently asked

About tract 04013421001

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 04013421001?

Census tract 04013421001 in the Mesa Patios neighborhood scores 4.6/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 04013421001?

Median gross rent is $1,311/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 69% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 04013421001?

26.0% of residents in tract 04013421001 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,824.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 04013421001?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 99th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 92th, household 94th, minority 60th, housing 100th.
Q5

Is tract 04013421001 considered part of Mesa Patios?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 04013421001 fall within Mesa Patios (neighborhood centroid within 0.9 miles, OSM data).
Q6

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 04013421001?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 875 eviction filings across 5 validated years in tract 04013421001 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 15.76% of renter households, peaking at 24.7% in 2005. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7

What share of households in tract 04013421001 struggle to pay rent?

About 15.0% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 9.5% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8

How does tract 04013421001 compare to Mesa overall?

Tract 04013421001 scores 4.6/10, higher than the parent city of Mesa at 3.2/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Mesa eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Mesa

Top eight tracts in Mesa ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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