Neighborhood · Ranked #39,308 of 84,120 nationally
Dobson Shores Eviction Risk: Moderate , Mesa
Tract 04013422103 ·
Maricopa, AZ · pop 5,337 · neighborhood within 1.5 mi
Tract 04013422103 sits in the Dobson Shores area of Mesa eviction risk, AZ, carrying an eviction-risk score of 4.6/10. It is home to 5,337 residents. 64% of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, markedly above the Maricopa County average of 46.0%.
Risk score
4.6
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 55%Stable renters 31%Owners 14%
Tract context
Occupied units2,390
Renter share85.6%
SVI overall0.84
Poverty rate20.2%
Median income$53,200
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
100th percentile
#1 of 6 tracts In Dobson Shores
Very High
Within parent city
89th percentile
#16 of 133 tracts In Mesa
High
Within county
76th percentile
#242 of 1,009 tracts In Maricopa
High
Within state
78th percentile
#397 of 1,765 tracts In Arizona
High
Geographic context
Risk heat across Mesa and the region
Centroid at 33.3967, -111.8698 · click any tract to drill in
Why Dobson Shores scores 4.6
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Mesa
3.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.1
State political climate
Arizona legislature & governorship
2.2
Economic stress
20.2% poverty · this tract
5.0
Supply constraint
$1,421 rent vs county FMR
2.3
Rent control risk
Inherited from Mesa
1.0
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Mesa
2.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Mesa
2.5
How Dobson Shores compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 84
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
90%Socioeconomic
52%Household composition
71%Racial/ethnic minority
78%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
2,732Total filings over 5 yrs
27.47%Avg annual filing rate
31.3%Peak (2001)
578Filings in 2005 (latest validated)
Filings by year2001 to 2005
Filings stayed roughly flat over the past 5 months.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Dobson Shores. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
18.7%Housing insecurity
11.3%Utility-shutoff threat
25.7%Food insecurity
20.1%SNAP enrollment
14.2%Transit barriers
16.0%No health insurance
20.1%Frequent mental distress
33.5%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Dobson Shores
Severe burden reaches 32%. Those are renters paying half their income or more, and that is where non-payment filings originate. The clearest offset is rent-regulation exposure at 1/10. This is renter territory: 86% of occupied units are tenant-occupied.
Running hot, court filing pressure reads 8.9/10. Annualized rent equals 32% of average household income of $53,200, past the 30% affordability line, which thins the margin any screening standard has to work with. Running cool, state political climate reads 2.2/10.
The poverty rate is 20%, which in this model reads as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment. Court records carry 2,732 eviction filings across 5 observed years.
It sits 0.9 points above the Maricopa County average of 3.7. Food insecurity runs 25.7% against 17.8% nationally. Average gross rent is $1,421, 12% below the Mesa average.
The worst year on record was 2001, when 31.3% of renter households were served.
These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.
Frequently asked
About tract 04013422103
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 04013422103?
Census tract 04013422103 in the Dobson Shores neighborhood scores 4.6/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 04013422103?
Median gross rent is $1,421/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 64% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 04013422103?
20.2% of residents in tract 04013422103 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 5,337.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 04013422103?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 84th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 90th, household 52th, minority 71th, housing 78th.
Q5
Is tract 04013422103 considered part of Dobson Shores?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 04013422103 fall within Dobson Shores (neighborhood centroid within 1.5 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 04013422103?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 2,732 eviction filings across 5 validated years in tract 04013422103 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 27.47% of renter households, peaking at 31.3% in 2001. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 04013422103 struggle to pay rent?
About 18.7% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 11.3% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 04013422103 compare to Mesa overall?
Tract 04013422103 scores 4.6/10, higher than the parent city of Mesa at 3.2/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Mesa eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Mesa
Top eight tracts in Mesa ranked by composite eviction-risk score.