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Neighborhood · Ranked #29,336 of 84,120 nationally

Keeling Eviction Risk: Moderate , Tucson

Tract 04019002603 · Pima, AZ · pop 3,057 · neighborhood within 0.4 mi

Tract 04019002603 sits in the Keeling area of Tucson eviction risk, AZ, carrying an eviction-risk score of 5.2/10. It is home to 3,057 residents. This is renter territory: 91% of occupied units are tenant-occupied.

Risk score
5.2
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 51% Stable renters 41% Owners 8%
Tract context
Occupied units1,339
Renter share91.4%
SVI overall0.99
Poverty rate30.9%
Median income$31,730

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
0 th percentile
Rank, 0th percentileLowHigh
#2 of 2 tracts In Keeling
Very Low
Within parent city
87 th percentile
Rank, 87th percentileLowHigh
#19 of 143 tracts In Tucson
High
Within county
87 th percentile
Rank, 87th percentileLowHigh
#35 of 270 tracts In Pima
High
Within state
96 th percentile
Rank, 96th percentileLowHigh
#72 of 1,765 tracts In Arizona
Very High
Geographic context

Risk heat across Tucson and the region

Centroid at 32.2639, -110.9671 · click any tract to drill in

Why Keeling scores 5.2

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Tucson
7.0
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.9
State political climate
Arizona legislature & governorship
2.2
Economic stress
30.9% poverty · this tract
7.7
Supply constraint
$901 rent vs county FMR
1.6
Rent control risk
Inherited from Tucson
1.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
4.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Tucson
5.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Tucson
4.5

How Keeling compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Keeling risk score vs. parent city / county / stateThis tract: 5.25.2This tracttract 002603Tucson: 3.83.8Tucsonparent cityCounty: 3.93.9Countyavg tract in countyState: 3.83.8Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 99

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 2,190Total filings over 12 yrs
  • 14.09%Avg annual filing rate
  • 16.3%Peak (2005)
  • 227Filings in 2017 (latest validated)
Filings by year 2004 to 2017
Year-by-year eviction filings in tract 040190026032004: 188 filings (11.83/100 renter HHs)2005: 251 filings (16.28/100 renter HHs)2006: 235 filings (15.24/100 renter HHs)2007: 183 filings (11.87/100 renter HHs)2008: 183 filings (11.87/100 renter HHs)2009: 125 filings (8.11/100 renter HHs)2010: 125 filings (11.61/100 renter HHs)2011: 135 filings (12.47/100 renter HHs)2012: 174 filings (16.07/100 renter HHs)2013: 205 filings (18.93/100 renter HHs)2016: 159 filings (14.35/100 renter HHs)2017: 227 filings (20.49/100 renter HHs)
Filings climbed 21% over the past 12 months.
Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Keeling. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Keeling

Severe burden reaches 28%. Those are renters paying half their income or more, and that is where non-payment filings originate. 55% of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, markedly above the Pima County average of 43.8%. The clearest offset is rent-regulation exposure at 1.5/10.

Annualized rent equals 34% of average household income of $31,730, past the 30% affordability line, which thins the margin any screening standard has to work with. The poverty rate is 31%, which in this model reads as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment. Sitting well above the midpoint, court filing pressure reads 8.4/10.

Running cool, supply constraint reads 1.6/10. Disability prevalence runs 44.2% against 31.5% nationally. At $901 a month, rents run 21% under what the rest of Tucson commands.

Against the Pima County average of 3.9, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 1.3 points. Adults with no health insurance runs 22.2% against 11.3% nationally.

Court records carry 2,190 eviction filings across 12 observed years.

All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.

Frequently asked

About tract 04019002603

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 04019002603?

Census tract 04019002603 in the Keeling neighborhood scores 5.2/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 04019002603?

Median gross rent is $901/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 55% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 04019002603?

30.9% of residents in tract 04019002603 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,057.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 04019002603?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 99th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 96th, household 88th, minority 81th, housing 100th.
Q5

Is tract 04019002603 considered part of Keeling?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 04019002603 fall within Keeling (neighborhood centroid within 0.4 miles, OSM data).
Q6

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 04019002603?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 2,190 eviction filings across 12 validated years in tract 04019002603 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 14.09% of renter households, peaking at 16.3% in 2005. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7

What share of households in tract 04019002603 struggle to pay rent?

About 25.3% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 19.5% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8

How does tract 04019002603 compare to Tucson overall?

Tract 04019002603 scores 5.2/10, higher than the parent city of Tucson at 3.8/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Tucson eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Tucson

Top eight tracts in Tucson ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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