2 census tracts · pop 12,221 · pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score 4.7/10
· range 4.7–4.7
Arroyo Chico takes in 2 census tracts of Tucson, AZ and houses 12,221 people. The Eviction Risk Score is 4.7/10, in the Moderate tier. 55% of renters here are cost-burdened at the 30% threshold, dramatically above the Tucson rate of 32.8%.
Pulling the other way is rent-regulation exposure, at 1.5/10. The severe-burden share is 21%. Those renters are past the 50% mark, and they miss rent for reasons that have nothing to do with willingness to pay. Filings are well documented here: 1,231 across 2 observed tracts.
The poverty rate is 18%, which shows up in this model as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment. Filing activity peaked in 2013 at 11.5% of renter households.
Average gross rent is $1,274, 11% above the Tucson average of $1,145. The most recent observed rate, 4.7% in 2017, is well off that peak. Among the 32 mapped neighborhoods of Tucson, it ranks #21 by risk, the middle third.
The closest comparables inside the same city are Vandenberg Village and Poet's Square. Social vulnerability runs high at 8.5/10, concentrating the disaster- and displacement-exposure this model treats as a lagging risk input.
The 2 tracts here are tightly clustered, 0 points apart at the extremes.
With little internal variation, 4.7/10 is a fair proxy for any address inside the boundary. The number is rebuilt whenever its ACS, court-record, or statutory inputs change.
Risk score
4.7
Moderate
2 tracts · population-weighted
Arroyo Chico vs TucsonHow this neighborhood stacks against the citywide average
Single-parent HH, disability, language barriers, age 17- / 65+
Racial/ethnic minority77%ile
Hispanic + non-white share of population
Housing & transport81%ile
Multi-unit structures, mobile homes, crowding, no vehicle
Eviction filings · Princeton Eviction Lab
Court-record eviction history in Arroyo Chico
Aggregated across 2 validated constituent tracts. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households, pop-weighted.
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
1,231Total filings (sum)
6.80%Avg annual filing rate
11.5%Peak year (2013)
4.65%Latest filed (2017)
CDC PLACES 2023 · pop-weighted
Eviction-adjacent indicators in Arroyo Chico
Average across all constituent tracts, population-weighted. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh) crude prevalence.
13.8%Housing insecurity
9.1%Utility shutoff threat
18.2%Food insecurity
13.1%SNAP enrollment
16.0%No health insurance
34.5%Any disability
Frequently asked
About Arroyo Chico
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for Arroyo Chico?
Arroyo Chico scores 4.7/10 (Moderate tier) across 2 census tracts. The pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income and poverty signals.
Q2
How does Arroyo Chico compare to Tucson overall?
Arroyo Chico scores 0.9 points higher than Tucson overall (3.8/10). Renters spend 55% of income on rent vs 33% citywide. Average rent: $1,274 vs $1,145.
Q3
What is the average rent in Arroyo Chico?
Average gross rent in Arroyo Chico is $1,274/month (pop-weighted across 2 census tracts, ACS 5-year 2023). 55% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q4
What percentage of Arroyo Chico residents are renters?
39% of Arroyo Chico households are renter-occupied (vs 48% in Tucson). The neighborhood has 12,221 residents.
Q5
Is Arroyo Chico a high social-vulnerability area?
Arroyo Chico sits in the 83rd percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index (highly vulnerable). The index combines poverty, unemployment, household composition, racial/ethnic minority share, and housing/transportation factors across all US census tracts.
Q6
Which tracts in Arroyo Chico have the highest eviction risk?
The highest-risk constituent tract in Arroyo Chico is census tract 04019002000 (score 4.7/10). Across the 2 tracts in this neighborhood the score ranges from 4.7 to 4.7, a spread of 0 points.
Q7
How safe is Arroyo Chico for landlords?
Arroyo Chico carries a moderate-tier eviction-risk profile for landlords (4.7/10). Pop-weighted across 2 constituent tracts, the score blends parent-city rent-control posture, county eviction-process timelines, and tract-specific rent-to-income / poverty signals. Compared to Tucson as a whole (3.8/10), this neighborhood is higher-risk.
Q8
What is the demographic breakdown of Arroyo Chico?
Arroyo Chico has 11,828 residents. Top groups: Hispanic / Latino (55.6%), White (non-Hispanic) (35.8%), Other / Multiracial (5.6%). Source: ACS 5-year 2023, table B03002.
