Neighborhood · Tucson, AZ

Broadway Northeast Eviction Risk: Moderate

4 census tracts · pop 12,779 · pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score 4.6/10 · range 3–5.2

Broadway Northeast takes in 4 census tracts of Tucson, AZ and houses 12,779 people. The Eviction Risk Score is 4.6/10, in the Moderate tier. Against a Tucson baseline of 32.8%, 49% of renters here cross the 30%-of-income line.

Severe burden reaches 26%. A tenant at that level absorbs no shock: one cut shift or one repair bill converts directly into arrears. The main counterweight is rent-regulation exposure, at 1.5/10.

Internally this is not one market. Tract scores span 3 to 5.2, so two buildings inside the same boundary can carry materially different risk. Court records carry 7,071 eviction filings across its 4 observed tracts. Well under the midpoint is supply constraint, at 2.9/10.

The worst year on record was 2016, when filings touched 31.1% of renter households. The most recent observed rate, 15.5% in 2017, is well off that peak.

Among the 32 mapped neighborhoods of Tucson, it ranks #22 by risk, the lower third. The closest comparables inside the same city are Arroyo Chico and Vandenberg Village. Social vulnerability runs high at 8.5/10, concentrating the disaster- and displacement-exposure this model treats as a lagging risk input.

Average gross rent runs $1,090, close to the Tucson average. Annual rent works out to 27% of average household income of $49,124.

Underwrite the address, not the area: with 2.2 points between its best and worst tract, the per-tract table below is the operative number. Scores move when the ACS release, the court-record feed, or the statute ledger behind them moves.

Risk score

4.6

Moderate

4 tracts · population-weighted

Broadway Northeast vs Tucson How this neighborhood stacks against the citywide average

% of income on rent

49.3% +50%

Tucson: 32.8%

Average gross rent

$1,090 -5%

Tucson: $1,145

Average HH income

$49,124 -10%

Tucson: $54,546

Poverty rate

14.2% -25%

Tucson: 18.8%

Renter share

60.1% +25%

Tucson: 48.2%

Peer neighborhoods

Neighborhoods with similar eviction risk

Same county, closest by Eviction Risk Score.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Broadway Northeast and the region

Click any tract to drill in · 4 tracts span score 3–5.2

Why Broadway Northeast scores 4.6

9 axes · pop-weighted · 1 = landlord-friendly

State political climate

legislature & governorship · Range 2.2–2.2 across tracts

2.2

Regional political climate

County-level mix · 2024 presidential margin · Range 5.9–5.9 across tracts

5.9

Local political climate

Parent city governance · Range 7.0–7.0 across tracts

7.0

Rent control risk

49% of income on rent · Range 1.5–1.5 across tracts

1.5

Eviction process difficulty

State notice requirements & court backlog · Range 4.0–4.0 across tracts

4.0

Tenant organizing strength

60% renter households · Range 5.5–5.5 across tracts

5.5

Housing court bias

County bench composition · Range 4.5–4.5 across tracts

4.5

Economic stress

14.2% below poverty line · Range 1.0–5.3 across tracts

3.7

Supply constraint

Rent-to-FMR gap & zoning friction · Range 1.2–3.9 across tracts

2.9

Risk score comparison

Broadway Northeast vs. parent city, state, U.S.

Eviction Risk Score (0–10 scale).

Variance across tracts

How uniformly does eviction risk play out in Broadway Northeast?

Left: distribution of constituent tract scores. Right: every tract as a heat square. Click any square to drill in.

Score distribution

0246810

Spread of 2.2 points from 3 to 5.2. This neighborhood crosses multiple risk tiers, so block-by-block conditions vary substantially.

Tracts as heat grid

5.2 5.0 4.6 3.0

Each square = one census tract. Color tracks the same green→red ramp as the chloropleth map above.

Census tracts

4 tracts in Broadway Northeast

Ranked highest-risk first. Click for per-tract detail.

Tract↕	Score↕	Pop↕	% over 30% on rent↕	Average rent↕
04019004069	5.2	3,784	46%	$1,225
04019004071	5	3,902	66%	$1,004
04019004039	4.6	2,327	53%	$855
04019004072	3	2,766	27%	$1,224

Social Vulnerability Index

CDC SVI percentile: 83

Pop-weighted across 4 tracts. Higher = more vulnerable to disaster, displacement, and rent shocks. Source: CDC/ATSDR SVI 2022.

Socioeconomic status 67%ile

Poverty, unemployment, no-HS-diploma, housing cost burden

Household characteristics 84%ile

Single-parent HH, disability, language barriers, age 17- / 65+

Racial/ethnic minority 56%ile

Hispanic + non-white share of population

Housing & transport 88%ile

Multi-unit structures, mobile homes, crowding, no vehicle

Eviction filings · Princeton Eviction Lab

Court-record eviction history in Broadway Northeast

Aggregated across 4 validated constituent tracts. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households, pop-weighted.

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

7,071Total filings (sum)
15.09%Avg annual filing rate
31.1%Peak year (2016)
16.35%Latest filed (2017)

CDC PLACES 2023 · pop-weighted

Eviction-adjacent indicators in Broadway Northeast

Average across all constituent tracts, population-weighted. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh) crude prevalence.

10.9%Housing insecurity
8.0%Utility shutoff threat
14.6%Food insecurity
11.8%SNAP enrollment
11.0%No health insurance
37.1%Any disability

Frequently asked

About Broadway Northeast

What is the eviction-risk score for Broadway Northeast?

Broadway Northeast scores 4.6/10 (Moderate tier) across 4 census tracts. The pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income and poverty signals.

How does Broadway Northeast compare to Tucson overall?

Broadway Northeast scores 0.8 points higher than Tucson overall (3.8/10). Renters spend 49% of income on rent vs 33% citywide. Average rent: $1,090 vs $1,145.

What is the average rent in Broadway Northeast?

Average gross rent in Broadway Northeast is $1,090/month (pop-weighted across 4 census tracts, ACS 5-year 2023). 49% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What percentage of Broadway Northeast residents are renters?

60% of Broadway Northeast households are renter-occupied (vs 48% in Tucson). The neighborhood has 12,779 residents.

Is Broadway Northeast a high social-vulnerability area?

Broadway Northeast sits in the 83rd percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index (highly vulnerable). The index combines poverty, unemployment, household composition, racial/ethnic minority share, and housing/transportation factors across all US census tracts.

Which tracts in Broadway Northeast have the highest eviction risk?

The highest-risk constituent tract in Broadway Northeast is census tract 04019004069 (score 5.2/10). Across the 4 tracts in this neighborhood the score ranges from 3 to 5.2, a spread of 2.2 points.

How safe is Broadway Northeast for landlords?

Broadway Northeast carries a moderate-tier eviction-risk profile for landlords (4.6/10). Pop-weighted across 4 constituent tracts, the score blends parent-city rent-control posture, county eviction-process timelines, and tract-specific rent-to-income / poverty signals. Compared to Tucson as a whole (3.8/10), this neighborhood is higher-risk.

What is the demographic breakdown of Broadway Northeast?

Broadway Northeast has 13,079 residents. Top groups: White (non-Hispanic) (61%), Hispanic / Latino (24.8%), Other / Multiracial (6.6%). Source: ACS 5-year 2023, table B03002.

Nearby

Other neighborhoods near Broadway Northeast

4.2 Palo Verde Park 6 tracts · pop 23,424 4.3 El Gheko 3 tracts · pop 11,905 4.8 Vandenberg Village 4 tracts · pop 16,347 3.5 Tanuri 2 tracts · pop 3,398 4.7 Poet's Square 5 tracts · pop 18,675 3 Tanuri Hills 2 tracts · pop 6,472

Sibling neighborhoods

Other neighborhoods inside Tucson

Same parent city, ranked by score similarity to Broadway Northeast.

4.5 Twelve Hundred River Condominums 3 tracts · pop 10,105 4.7 Poet's Square 5 tracts · pop 18,675 4.7 Vandenberg Village 4 tracts · pop 16,347 4.7 Arroyo Chico 2 tracts · pop 12,221 4.8 Palo Verde 6 tracts · pop 23,081 4.3 Palo Verde Park 6 tracts · pop 23,424

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