Neighborhood · Tucson, AZ

Palo Verde Eviction Risk: Moderate

6 census tracts · pop 23,081 · pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score 4.8/10 · range 4.2–5.2

Palo Verde takes in 6 census tracts of Tucson, AZ and houses 23,081 people. The Eviction Risk Score is 4.8/10, in the Moderate tier. 53% of renters here are cost-burdened at the 30% threshold, well clear of the Tucson rate of 32.8%.

The main counterweight is rent-regulation exposure, at 1.5/10. 71% of occupied units are rented, so comparables are plentiful and vacancy risk is low, but a mispriced renewal loses the tenant to a building two streets over. The severe-burden share is 21%. Those renters are past the 50% mark, and they miss rent for reasons that have nothing to do with willingness to pay.

On the softer side is supply constraint, at 2/10. The poverty rate is 22%, which shows up in this model as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment.

Average gross rent is $937, 18% below the Tucson average of $1,145. The 6 tracts inside this boundary do not behave alike. Individual scores run 4.2 to 5.2, a 1-point gap wide enough that the area average misleads on any specific address.

Court records carry 9,295 eviction filings across its 5 observed tracts. Filing activity peaked in 2007 at 22.5% of renter households. The most recent observed rate, 8.9% in 2017, is well off that peak.

Among the 32 mapped neighborhoods of Tucson, it ranks #18 by risk, the middle third.

For a specific building, read the per-tract breakdown below rather than the 4.8 headline, because the internal range is too wide to average safely. The number is rebuilt whenever its ACS, court-record, or statutory inputs change.

Risk score

4.8

Moderate

6 tracts · population-weighted

Palo Verde vs Tucson How this neighborhood stacks against the citywide average

% of income on rent

52.8% +61%

Tucson: 32.8%

Average gross rent

$937 -18%

Tucson: $1,145

Average HH income

$42,728 -22%

Tucson: $54,546

Poverty rate

21.6% +15%

Tucson: 18.8%

Renter share

70.8% +47%

Tucson: 48.2%

Peer neighborhoods

Neighborhoods with similar eviction risk

Same county, closest by Eviction Risk Score.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Palo Verde and the region

Click any tract to drill in · 6 tracts span score 4.2–5.2

Why Palo Verde scores 4.8

9 axes · pop-weighted · 1 = landlord-friendly

State political climate

legislature & governorship · Range 2.2–2.2 across tracts

2.2

Regional political climate

County-level mix · 2024 presidential margin · Range 5.9–5.9 across tracts

5.9

Local political climate

Parent city governance · Range 7.0–7.0 across tracts

7.0

Rent control risk

53% of income on rent · Range 1.5–1.5 across tracts

1.5

Eviction process difficulty

State notice requirements & court backlog · Range 4.0–4.0 across tracts

4.0

Tenant organizing strength

71% renter households · Range 5.5–5.5 across tracts

5.5

Housing court bias

County bench composition · Range 4.5–4.5 across tracts

4.5

Economic stress

21.6% below poverty line · Range 2.9–9.7 across tracts

5.4

Supply constraint

Rent-to-FMR gap & zoning friction · Range 1.0–3.0 across tracts

2.0

Risk score comparison

Palo Verde vs. parent city, state, U.S.

Eviction Risk Score (0–10 scale).

Variance across tracts

How uniformly does eviction risk play out in Palo Verde?

Left: distribution of constituent tract scores. Right: every tract as a heat square. Click any square to drill in.

Score distribution

0246810

Spread of 1 points from 4.2 to 5.2. Moderate variation across constituent tracts.

Tracts as heat grid

5.2 5.2 5.2 4.7 4.3 4.2

Each square = one census tract. Color tracks the same green→red ramp as the chloropleth map above.

Census tracts

6 tracts in Palo Verde

Ranked highest-risk first. Click for per-tract detail.

Tract↕	Score↕	Pop↕	% over 30% on rent↕	Average rent↕
04019001801	5.2	4,809	60%	$748
04019002802	5.2	4,122	58%	$1,103
04019003104	5.2	2,865	60%	$934
04019001802	4.7	2,649	49%	$820
04019002803	4.3	2,630	53%	$1,045
04019002901	4.2	6,006	42%	$982

Social Vulnerability Index

CDC SVI percentile: 89

Pop-weighted across 6 tracts. Higher = more vulnerable to disaster, displacement, and rent shocks. Source: CDC/ATSDR SVI 2022.

Socioeconomic status 91%ile

Poverty, unemployment, no-HS-diploma, housing cost burden

Household characteristics 54%ile

Single-parent HH, disability, language barriers, age 17- / 65+

Racial/ethnic minority 64%ile

Hispanic + non-white share of population

Housing & transport 90%ile

Multi-unit structures, mobile homes, crowding, no vehicle

Eviction filings · Princeton Eviction Lab

Court-record eviction history in Palo Verde

Aggregated across 5 validated constituent tracts. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households, pop-weighted.

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

9,295Total filings (sum)
11.89%Avg annual filing rate
22.5%Peak year (2007)
9.73%Latest filed (2017)

CDC PLACES 2023 · pop-weighted

Eviction-adjacent indicators in Palo Verde

Average across all constituent tracts, population-weighted. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh) crude prevalence.

16.2%Housing insecurity
12.5%Utility shutoff threat
22.3%Food insecurity
20.2%SNAP enrollment
14.0%No health insurance
37.6%Any disability

Frequently asked

About Palo Verde

What is the eviction-risk score for Palo Verde?

Palo Verde scores 4.8/10 (Moderate tier) across 6 census tracts. The pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income and poverty signals.

How does Palo Verde compare to Tucson overall?

Palo Verde scores 1.0 points higher than Tucson overall (3.8/10). Renters spend 53% of income on rent vs 33% citywide. Average rent: $937 vs $1,145.

What is the average rent in Palo Verde?

Average gross rent in Palo Verde is $937/month (pop-weighted across 6 census tracts, ACS 5-year 2023). 53% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What percentage of Palo Verde residents are renters?

71% of Palo Verde households are renter-occupied (vs 48% in Tucson). The neighborhood has 23,081 residents.

Is Palo Verde a high social-vulnerability area?

Palo Verde sits in the 89th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index (highly vulnerable). The index combines poverty, unemployment, household composition, racial/ethnic minority share, and housing/transportation factors across all US census tracts.

Which tracts in Palo Verde have the highest eviction risk?

The highest-risk constituent tract in Palo Verde is census tract 04019001801 (score 5.2/10). Across the 6 tracts in this neighborhood the score ranges from 4.2 to 5.2, a spread of 1 points.

How safe is Palo Verde for landlords?

Palo Verde carries a moderate-tier eviction-risk profile for landlords (4.8/10). Pop-weighted across 6 constituent tracts, the score blends parent-city rent-control posture, county eviction-process timelines, and tract-specific rent-to-income / poverty signals. Compared to Tucson as a whole (3.8/10), this neighborhood is higher-risk.

What is the demographic breakdown of Palo Verde?

Palo Verde has 23,255 residents. Top groups: White (non-Hispanic) (53.9%), Hispanic / Latino (27.6%), Other / Multiracial (10.1%). Source: ACS 5-year 2023, table B03002.

Nearby

Other neighborhoods near Palo Verde

4.7 Poet's Square 5 tracts · pop 18,675 4.7 Samos 3 tracts · pop 12,024 4.7 Arroyo Chico 2 tracts · pop 12,221 4.5 Twelve Hundred River Condominums 3 tracts · pop 10,105 3.5 Tanuri 2 tracts · pop 3,398 5.2 West University 2 tracts · pop 5,962

Sibling neighborhoods

Other neighborhoods inside Tucson

Same parent city, ranked by score similarity to Palo Verde.

4.7 Poet's Square 5 tracts · pop 18,675 4.7 Vandenberg Village 4 tracts · pop 16,347 4.7 Arroyo Chico 2 tracts · pop 12,221 4.9 Barrio Hollywood 3 tracts · pop 8,430 4.9 Samos 3 tracts · pop 12,024 4.9 Barrio San Antonio 1 tracts · pop 1,804

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