Within neighborhood
0
th percentile
Very Low
Neighborhood · Ranked #37,882 of 84,120 nationally
Arroyo Chico Eviction Risk: Moderate , Tucson
Tract 04019002000 · Pima, AZ · pop 6,563 · neighborhood within 1.1 mi
Census tract 04019002000 covers part of the Arroyo Chico area of Tucson, AZ, and scores 4.7/10 on landlord eviction risk. It is home to 6,563 residents. The main counterweight is rent-regulation exposure at 1.5/10.
Risk score
4.7
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 11%
Stable renters 14%
Owners 75%
Tract context
Occupied units2,452
Renter share25.0%
SVI overall0.87
Poverty rate17.0%
Median income$51,824
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
49
th percentile
Moderate
Within county
71
th percentile
Elevated
Within state
79
th percentile
High
Geographic context
Risk heat across Tucson and the region
Centroid at 32.2008, -110.9256 · click any tract to drill in
Why Arroyo Chico scores 4.7
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Tucson
7.0
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.9
State political climate
Arizona legislature & governorship
2.2
Economic stress
17.0% poverty · this tract
4.3
Supply constraint
$1,349 rent vs county FMR
4.8
Rent control risk
Inherited from Tucson
1.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
4.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Tucson
5.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Tucson
4.5
How Arroyo Chico compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 87
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 81%Socioeconomic
- 75%Household composition
- 82%Racial/ethnic minority
- 85%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 527Total filings over 12 yrs
- 7.68%Avg annual filing rate
- 11.5%Peak (2008)
- 27Filings in 2017 (latest validated)
Filings dropped 46% over the past 12 months.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Arroyo Chico. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 16.8%Housing insecurity
- 11.0%Utility-shutoff threat
- 22.7%Food insecurity
- 16.8%SNAP enrollment
- 12.1%Transit barriers
- 19.6%No health insurance
- 17.0%Frequent mental distress
- 37.9%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Arroyo Chico
Severe burden reaches 21%. Those are renters paying half their income or more, and that is where non-payment filings originate. Running hot, court filing pressure reads 8.4/10. Well under the midpoint, state political climate reads 2.2/10.
Average gross rent is $1,349, 18% above the Tucson average. Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 527 filings here across 12 tracked years.
Adults with no health insurance runs 19.6% against 11.3% nationally. Against the Pima County average of 3.9, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 0.8 points. The worst year on record was 2008, when 11.5% of renter households were served.
In a typical year about 7.7% of renter households face a filing. That is riskier than roughly 55% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model. CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 8.9/10.
Statewide the AZ average is 3.8, so this tract runs 0.9 points hotter.
Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.
Frequently asked
About tract 04019002000
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 04019002000?
Census tract 04019002000 in the Arroyo Chico neighborhood scores 4.7/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 04019002000?
Median gross rent is $1,349/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 44% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 04019002000?
17.0% of residents in tract 04019002000 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 6,563.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 04019002000?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 87th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 81th, household 75th, minority 82th, housing 85th.
Q5
Is tract 04019002000 considered part of Arroyo Chico?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 04019002000 fall within Arroyo Chico (neighborhood centroid within 1.1 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 04019002000?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 527 eviction filings across 12 validated years in tract 04019002000 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 7.68% of renter households, peaking at 11.5% in 2008. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 04019002000 struggle to pay rent?
About 16.8% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 11.0% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 04019002000 compare to Tucson overall?
Tract 04019002000 scores 4.7/10, higher than the parent city of Tucson at 3.8/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Tucson eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Tucson
Top eight tracts in Tucson ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · AZ
Pie Allen
5.2
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
04019003801
5.2
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
Flowing Wells
5.2
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
Samos
5.2
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
Miramonte
5.2
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
West University
5.2
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
Flowing Wells
5.2
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
04019004117
5.2
/ 10 · Moderate
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