Skip to content
Neighborhood · Ranked #24,926 of 84,120 nationally

Arroyo Chico Eviction Risk: Moderate , Tucson

Tract 04019002000 · Pima, AZ · pop 6,563 · neighborhood within 1.1 mi

Census tract 04019002000 covers the Arroyo Chico area of Tucson, home to 6,563 residents. For landlords it grades 5.7/10, a moderate reading. That is riskier than about 66% of US census tracts.

44% of renter households here spend at least 30% of income on rent, a severe level, and 21% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average rent runs $1,349 a month against an average household income of $51,824 a year, roughly 31% of income at the averages. Renters make up 25% of occupied homes.

Risk score
5
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 11% Stable renters 14% Owners 75%
Tract context
Occupied units2,452
Renter share25.0%
SVI overall0.87
Poverty rate17.0%
Median income$51,824

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
100 th percentile
Rank, 100th percentileLowHigh
#1 of 2 tracts In Arroyo Chico
Very High
Within parent city
55 th percentile
Rank, 55th percentileLowHigh
#65 of 143 tracts In Tucson
Moderate
Within county
73 th percentile
Rank, 73rd percentileLowHigh
#73 of 270 tracts In Pima
Elevated
Within state
80 th percentile
Rank, 80th percentileLowHigh
#353 of 1,765 tracts In Arizona
High
Geographic context

Risk heat across Tucson and the region

Centroid at 32.2008, -110.9256 · click any tract to drill in

Why Arroyo Chico scores 5

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Tucson
7.0
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.9
State political climate
Arizona legislature & governorship
2.2
Economic stress
17.0% poverty · this tract
4.3
Supply constraint
$1,349 rent vs county FMR
4.8
Rent control risk
Inherited from Tucson
1.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
4.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Tucson
5.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Tucson
4.5

How Arroyo Chico compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Arroyo Chico risk score vs. parent city / county / stateThis tract: 5.05.0This tracttract 002000Tucson: 3.23.2Tucsonparent cityCounty: 3.83.8Countyavg tract in countyState: 3.63.6Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 87

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 527Total filings over 12 yrs
  • 7.68%Avg annual filing rate
  • 11.5%Peak (2008)
  • 27Filings in 2017 (latest validated)
Filings by year 2004 to 2017
Year-by-year eviction filings in tract 040190020002004: 50 filings (9.52/100 renter HHs)2005: 55 filings (10.89/100 renter HHs)2006: 39 filings (7.72/100 renter HHs)2007: 54 filings (10.69/100 renter HHs)2008: 58 filings (11.48/100 renter HHs)2009: 40 filings (7.92/100 renter HHs)2010: 32 filings (5.14/100 renter HHs)2011: 33 filings (4.73/100 renter HHs)2012: 52 filings (7.46/100 renter HHs)2013: 53 filings (7.60/100 renter HHs)2016: 34 filings (4.99/100 renter HHs)2017: 27 filings (3.96/100 renter HHs)
Filings dropped 46% over the past 12 months.
Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Arroyo Chico. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Arroyo Chico

The heaviest input here is tenant organizing strength at 5.5/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Tucson eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores about the same as the Pima County average of 5.5 and above the Arizona statewide average of 4.9. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.

In CDC survey modeling, about 16.8% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 11.0% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.

Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 527 eviction filings here over 12 tracked years, with about 7.7% of renter households facing a filing in a typical year. Filings peaked at 11.5% of renter households in 2008.

For a landlord, conditions here are middle-of-the-road. Standard screening and prompt, documented notices usually keep cases short.

Frequently asked

About tract 04019002000

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 04019002000?

Census tract 04019002000 in the Arroyo Chico neighborhood scores 5/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 04019002000?

Median gross rent is $1,349/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 44% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 04019002000?

17.0% of residents in tract 04019002000 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 6,563.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 04019002000?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 87th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 81th, household 75th, minority 82th, housing 85th.
Q5

Is tract 04019002000 considered part of Arroyo Chico?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 04019002000 fall within Arroyo Chico (neighborhood centroid within 1.1 miles, OSM data).
Q6

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 04019002000?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 527 eviction filings across 12 validated years in tract 04019002000 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 7.68% of renter households, peaking at 11.5% in 2008. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7

What share of households in tract 04019002000 struggle to pay rent?

About 16.8% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 11.0% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8

How does tract 04019002000 compare to Tucson overall?

Tract 04019002000 scores 5/10, higher than the parent city of Tucson at 3.2/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Tucson eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Tucson

Top eight tracts in Tucson ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

Related