Barrio Histórico District Eviction Risk: Moderate

Severe burden reaches 37%. A tenant at that level absorbs no shock: one cut shift or one repair bill converts directly into arrears. What pushes the score up most is economic stress at 10/10.

Annualized rent equals 47% of average household income here, past the 30% affordability line, which compresses the margin any screening standard has to work with. 98% of occupied units are rented, so comparables are plentiful and vacancy risk is low, but a mispriced renewal loses the tenant to a building two streets over. The poverty rate is 41%, which shows up in this model as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment.

Well under the midpoint is rent-regulation exposure, at 1.5/10. The filing record is not thin: 201 evictions logged in this tract. The worst year on record was 2017, when filings touched 6.0% of renter households.

Among the 32 mapped neighborhoods of Tucson, it ranks #2 by risk, the upper third. Judgments average 2.8% of renter households a year, the share of filings that actually convert to an order. Social vulnerability runs high at 8.4/10, concentrating the disaster- and displacement-exposure this model treats as a lagging risk input.

Average gross rent runs $1,138, close to the Tucson average.

One tract means one number: 5.2/10 applies directly to any address inside the boundary. The number is rebuilt whenever its ACS, court-record, or statutory inputs change.