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Neighborhood · Ranked #29,336 of 84,120 nationally

Rincon Heights Eviction Risk: Moderate , Tucson

Tract 04019000502 · Pima, AZ · pop 7,715 · neighborhood within 0.4 mi

04019000502 is a census tract in the Rincon Heights area of Tucson, AZ. It scores 5.2/10 for landlords. Population here is 7,715. 90% of occupied units are rented, so comparables are plentiful and vacancy risk is low, but a mispriced renewal loses the tenant to a building nearby.

Risk score
5.2
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 35% Stable renters 55% Owners 10%
Tract context
Occupied units934
Renter share90.0%
SVI overall0.68
Poverty rate29.6%
Median income$38,594

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
50 th percentile
Rank, 50th percentileLowHigh
#1 of 1 tracts In Rincon Heights
Moderate
Within parent city
99 th percentile
Rank, 99th percentileLowHigh
#3 of 143 tracts In Tucson
Very High
Within county
84 th percentile
Rank, 84th percentileLowHigh
#43 of 270 tracts In Pima
High
Within state
96 th percentile
Rank, 96th percentileLowHigh
#72 of 1,765 tracts In Arizona
Very High
Geographic context

Risk heat across Tucson and the region

Centroid at 32.2303, -110.9506 · click any tract to drill in

Why Rincon Heights scores 5.2

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Tucson
7.0
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.9
State political climate
Arizona legislature & governorship
2.2
Economic stress
29.6% poverty · this tract
7.4
Supply constraint
$996 rent vs county FMR
2.3
Rent control risk
Inherited from Tucson
1.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
4.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Tucson
5.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Tucson
4.5

How Rincon Heights compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Rincon Heights risk score vs. parent city / county / stateThis tract: 5.25.2This tracttract 000502Tucson: 3.83.8Tucsonparent cityCounty: 3.93.9Countyavg tract in countyState: 3.83.8Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 68

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Rincon Heights

The main counterweight is rent-regulation exposure at 1.5/10. Severe burden reaches 23%. Those are renters paying half their income or more, and that is where non-payment filings originate. Sitting well above the midpoint, court filing pressure reads 8.4/10.

The poverty rate is 30%. Judgments in high-poverty tracts are collectible far less often than filing counts suggest. It sits 1.3 points above the Pima County average of 3.9.

Running cool, state political climate reads 2.2/10. 39% of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, lower than the Pima County average of 43.8%. At $996 a month, rents run 13% under what the rest of Tucson commands.

On the national scale it lands near the 65th percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored. On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 7.1/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here.

Statewide the AZ average is 3.8, so this tract runs 1.4 points hotter. Of its three components the household composition measure is the least pressured.

Annual rent works out to 31% of average household income of $38,594.

All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.

Frequently asked

About tract 04019000502

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 04019000502?

Census tract 04019000502 in the Rincon Heights neighborhood scores 5.2/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 04019000502?

Median gross rent is $996/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 39% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 04019000502?

29.6% of residents in tract 04019000502 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 7,715.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 04019000502?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 68th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 87th, household 2th, minority 53th, housing 92th.
Q5

Is tract 04019000502 considered part of Rincon Heights?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 04019000502 fall within Rincon Heights (neighborhood centroid within 0.4 miles, OSM data).
Q6

What share of households in tract 04019000502 struggle to pay rent?

About 12.5% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 8.6% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7

How does tract 04019000502 compare to Tucson overall?

Tract 04019000502 scores 5.2/10, higher than the parent city of Tucson at 3.8/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Tucson eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Tucson

Top eight tracts in Tucson ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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