Within parent city
42
th percentile
Moderate
Census Tract · Ranked #44,239 of 84,120 nationally
Tucson Eviction Risk: Moderate
Tract 04019002100 · Pima, AZ · pop 6,314 · 71% of tract blocks fall in Tucson
With a score of 4.3/10, tract 04019002100 in Tucson, AZ reads moderate for landlord eviction risk. The main counterweight is rent-regulation exposure at 1.5/10.
Risk score
4.3
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 21%
Stable renters 30%
Owners 49%
Tract context
Occupied units1,877
Renter share51.0%
SVI overall0.94
Poverty rate18.1%
Median income$72,643
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within county
64
th percentile
Elevated
Within state
70
th percentile
Elevated
National
47
th percentile
Moderate
Geographic context
Risk heat across Tucson and the region
Centroid at 32.1865, -110.9280 · click any tract to drill in
Why Tucson scores 4.3
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Tucson
7.0
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.9
State political climate
Arizona legislature & governorship
2.2
Economic stress
18.1% poverty · this tract
4.5
Supply constraint
$929 rent vs county FMR
1.8
Rent control risk
Inherited from Tucson
1.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
4.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Tucson
5.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Tucson
4.5
How Tucson compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 94
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 89%Socioeconomic
- 95%Household composition
- 94%Racial/ethnic minority
- 77%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 747Total filings over 12 yrs
- 10.26%Avg annual filing rate
- 15.2%Peak (2007)
- 63Filings in 2017 (latest validated)
Filings climbed 31% over the past 12 months.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 22.2%Housing insecurity
- 13.9%Utility-shutoff threat
- 30.0%Food insecurity
- 22.1%SNAP enrollment
- 15.3%Transit barriers
- 25.8%No health insurance
- 18.5%Frequent mental distress
- 40.5%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Tucson
Running hot, court filing pressure reads 8.4/10. On the softer side, supply constraint reads 1.8/10. Food insecurity runs 30.0% against 17.8% nationally.
Average gross rent is $929, 19% below the Tucson average. The poverty rate is 18%, which in this model reads as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment.
10% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears. The filing record is not thin: 747 evictions over 12 years of observation. Housing insecurity runs 22.2% against 14.2% nationally.
Filings peaked in 2007 at 15.2% of renter households. In a typical year about 10.3% of renter households face a filing. That is riskier than roughly 47% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model.
CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 9.5/10. Against average income of $72,643, annual rent is just 15%.
Of its three components the household composition measure is the most pressured.
These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.
Frequently asked
About tract 04019002100
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 04019002100?
Census tract 04019002100 in Tucson scores 4.3/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 04019002100?
Median gross rent is $929/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 42% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 04019002100?
18.1% of residents in tract 04019002100 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 6,314.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 04019002100?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 94th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 89th, household 95th, minority 94th, housing 77th.
Q5
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 04019002100?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 747 eviction filings across 12 validated years in tract 04019002100 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 10.26% of renter households, peaking at 15.2% in 2007. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q6
What share of households in tract 04019002100 struggle to pay rent?
About 22.2% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 13.9% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7
How does tract 04019002100 compare to Tucson overall?
Tract 04019002100 scores 4.3/10, higher than the parent city of Tucson at 3.8/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Tucson eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Tucson
Top eight tracts in Tucson ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · AZ
04019002504
5.2
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
04019003505
5.2
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
Barrio Blue Moon
5.2
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
04019003506
5.2
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
Miracle Manor
5.2
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
Palo Verde Park
5.2
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
Keeling
5.2
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
Emery Park
5.2
/ 10 · Moderate
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