Within parent city
92
th percentile
Very High
Census Tract · Ranked #29,336 of 84,120 nationally
Tucson Eviction Risk: Moderate
Tract 04019002801 · Pima, AZ · pop 1,901 · 60% of tract blocks fall in Tucson
With a score of 5.2/10, tract 04019002801 in Tucson, AZ reads moderate for landlord eviction risk. Population here is 1,901. Against Pima County at 43.8%, 59% of renters here are cost-burdened.
Risk score
5.2
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 46%
Stable renters 31%
Owners 23%
Tract context
Occupied units1,087
Renter share77.4%
SVI overall0.96
Poverty rate28.0%
Median income$28,655
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within county
96
th percentile
Very High
Within state
96
th percentile
Very High
National
65
th percentile
Elevated
Geographic context
Risk heat across Tucson and the region
Centroid at 32.2683, -110.9183 · click any tract to drill in
Why Tucson scores 5.2
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Tucson
7.0
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.9
State political climate
Arizona legislature & governorship
2.2
Economic stress
28.0% poverty · this tract
7.0
Supply constraint
$825 rent vs county FMR
1.0
Rent control risk
Inherited from Tucson
1.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
4.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Tucson
5.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Tucson
4.5
How Tucson compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 96
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 98%Socioeconomic
- 48%Household composition
- 74%Racial/ethnic minority
- 98%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 1,364Total filings over 12 yrs
- 15.93%Avg annual filing rate
- 15.8%Peak (2004)
- 108Filings in 2017 (latest validated)
Filings dropped 20% over the past 12 months.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 22.2%Housing insecurity
- 17.7%Utility-shutoff threat
- 32.2%Food insecurity
- 30.9%SNAP enrollment
- 18.3%Transit barriers
- 19.3%No health insurance
- 22.7%Frequent mental distress
- 44.9%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Tucson
The main counterweight is supply constraint at 1/10. 77% of occupied units are rented, so comparables are plentiful and vacancy risk is low, but a mispriced renewal loses the tenant to a building nearby. 23% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears.
Set annual rent against average income of $28,655 and the ratio lands at 35%, above the conventional 30% ceiling. On the softer side, rent-regulation exposure reads 1.5/10.
SNAP participation runs 30.9% against 15.2% nationally. Average gross rent is $825, 28% below the Tucson average.
The poverty rate is 28%, which in this model reads as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment. Sitting well above the midpoint, court filing pressure reads 8.4/10. It sits 1.3 points above the Pima County average of 3.9.
The filing record is not thin: 1,364 evictions over 12 years of observation. Adults with no health insurance runs 19.3% against 11.3% nationally.
All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.
Frequently asked
About tract 04019002801
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 04019002801?
Census tract 04019002801 in Tucson scores 5.2/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 04019002801?
Median gross rent is $825/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 59% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 04019002801?
28.0% of residents in tract 04019002801 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 1,901.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 04019002801?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 96th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 98th, household 48th, minority 74th, housing 98th.
Q5
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 04019002801?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 1,364 eviction filings across 12 validated years in tract 04019002801 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 15.93% of renter households, peaking at 15.8% in 2004. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q6
What share of households in tract 04019002801 struggle to pay rent?
About 22.2% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 17.7% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7
How does tract 04019002801 compare to Tucson overall?
Tract 04019002801 scores 5.2/10, higher than the parent city of Tucson at 3.8/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Tucson eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Tucson
Top eight tracts in Tucson ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · AZ
04019002201
5.2
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
04019002202
5.2
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
Vandenberg Village
5.2
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
04019004407
5.2
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
04019002400
5.2
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
04019002503
5.2
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
04019003505
5.2
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
Barrio Blue Moon
5.2
/ 10 · Moderate
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