Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #69,776 of 84,120 nationally
Pecan Creek South Eviction Risk: Lower , San Tan Valley
Tract 04021000218 · Pinal, AZ · pop 7,059 · neighborhood within 0.1 mi
Landlord eviction risk in census tract 04021000218 (the Pecan Creek South area of San Tan Valley, Arizona) comes in at 5.3/10, the Moderate tier. On the national scale it ranks #41,240 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty.
Rent eats 30% or more of income for 54% of renter households, a severe level, and 0% are severely burdened at 50% or more. The typical renter pays about $2,028 a month while the average household earns $88,393 a year, roughly 28% of income at the averages. Renters make up 28% of occupied homes.
Risk score
2.3
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 15%
Stable renters 13%
Owners 72%
Tract context
Occupied units2,166
Renter share27.9%
SVI overall0.44
Poverty rate7.6%
Median income$88,393
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
61
th percentile
Elevated
Within county
28
th percentile
Low
Within state
22
th percentile
Low
Geographic context
Risk heat across San Tan Valley and the region
Centroid at 33.2260, -111.5544 · click any tract to drill in
Why Pecan Creek South scores 2.3
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from San Tan Valley
4.7
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
4.1
State political climate
Arizona legislature & governorship
2.2
Economic stress
7.6% poverty · this tract
1.9
Supply constraint
$2,028 rent vs county FMR
5.4
Rent control risk
Inherited from San Tan Valley
5.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.6
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from San Tan Valley
4.4
Housing court bias
Inherited from San Tan Valley
4.9
How Pecan Creek South compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 44
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 50%Socioeconomic
- 78%Household composition
- 63%Racial/ethnic minority
- 12%Housing & transportation
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 12.8%Housing insecurity
- 8.4%Utility-shutoff threat
- 15.7%Food insecurity
- 9.8%SNAP enrollment
- 8.3%Transit barriers
- 11.6%No health insurance
- 18.2%Frequent mental distress
- 27.8%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Pecan Creek South
The heaviest input here is rent-control risk at 5.5/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from San Tan Valley eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.
Set against its neighbors, this tract scores above the Pinal County average of 4.9 and above the Arizona statewide average of 4.9. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.
In CDC survey modeling, about 12.8% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 8.4% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.
The tract is White and Hispanic or Latino and ranks around the 44th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. That is a middle-of-the-pack reading for social vulnerability.
For a landlord, conditions here are middle-of-the-road. Standard screening and prompt, documented notices usually keep cases short.
Frequently asked
About tract 04021000218
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 04021000218?
Census tract 04021000218 in the Pecan Creek South neighborhood scores 2.3/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 04021000218?
Median gross rent is $2,028/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 54% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 04021000218?
7.6% of residents in tract 04021000218 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 7,059.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 04021000218?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 44th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 50th, household 78th, minority 63th, housing 12th.
Q5
Is tract 04021000218 considered part of Pecan Creek South?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 04021000218 fall within Pecan Creek South (neighborhood centroid within 0.1 miles, OSM data).
Q6
What share of households in tract 04021000218 struggle to pay rent?
About 12.8% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 8.4% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7
How does tract 04021000218 compare to San Tan Valley overall?
Tract 04021000218 scores 2.3/10, lower than the parent city of San Tan Valley at 2.6/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from San Tan Valley eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in San Tan Valley
Top eight tracts in San Tan Valley ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · AZ
Copper Basin
2.7
/ 10 · Low
Tract · AZ
Circle Cross Ranch
2.7
/ 10 · Low
Tract · AZ
San Tan Heights
2.5
/ 10 · Low
Tract · AZ
Whitewing in the San Tans
2.5
/ 10 · Low
Tract · AZ
Copper Basin
2.4
/ 10 · Low
Tract · AZ
04021000217
2.4
/ 10 · Low
Tract · AZ
04021000208
2.3
/ 10 · Low
Tract · AZ
San Tan Heights
2.1
/ 10 · Low
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