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Chowchilla, California eviction risk overview
City brief · 19,020 residents

Chowchilla, CA Eviction Risk: ELEVATED

Madera County · Population 19,020

In 2026
Risk score
6.3
ELEVATED

60th percentile, California.

50-yr Eviction Risk Score history

1976 to 2026 · climbing fast since 2010

Min1.6 Average4.1 Now6.3
10 5 1976 · score 1.6 1977 · score 1.7 1978 · score 1.8 1979 · score 1.9 1980 · score 1.9 1981 · score 2.0 1982 · score 2.1 1983 · score 2.0 1984 · score 2.0 1985 · score 2.0 1986 · score 2.0 1987 · score 2.1 1988 · score 2.2 1989 · score 2.3 1990 · score 2.4 1991 · score 2.4 1992 · score 3.0 1993 · score 3.1 1994 · score 3.1 1995 · score 3.1 1996 · score 3.1 1997 · score 3.2 1998 · score 3.3 1999 · score 3.4 2000 · score 3.5 2001 · score 3.6 2002 · score 3.8 2003 · score 3.8 2004 · score 3.7 2005 · score 3.9 2006 · score 3.9 2007 · score 4.1 2008 · score 4.9 2009 · score 5.1 2010 · score 5.2 2011 · score 5.3 2012 · score 5.3 2013 · score 5.4 2014 · score 5.6 2015 · score 5.7 2016 · score 6.1 2017 · score 6.4 2018 · score 6.6 2019 · score 7.0 2020 · score 7.9 2021 · score 7.9 2022 · score 7.9 2023 · score 7.9 2024 · score 7.6 2025 · score 6.3 2026 · score 6.3

Key metrics

Time machine

Scrub 50 years

2026
● LIVE · today ◀ REPLAY · historical

Nine-axis profile

9-axis profile · today

Shape of the risk surface

1 landlord · 10 tenant
Local 6.0 Regional 6.0 State 6.8 Economic 8.5 Supply 7.8 Rent Control 7.9 Eviction 6.2 Tenant 8.3 Housing 8.1 6.3 ELEVATED
Sub-scores · with sparkline

Where the score comes from

1 → 10 scale
  1. Local political climate
    GOP margin +20.8% (2024)
    6.0
  2. Regional political climate
    County-weighted neighbor mix
    6.0
  3. State political climate
    California legislature & governorship
    6.8
  4. Economic stress
    22.3% poverty · 9.2% unemp.
    8.5
  5. Supply constraint
    $1,178 average · 42.7% renters
    7.8
  6. Rent Control risk
    30.6% of income on rent
    7.9
  7. Eviction process difficulty
    285 days filing → judgment
    6.2
  8. Tenant organizing strength
    42.7% renters
    8.3
  9. Housing court bias
    County bench composition
    8.1
Geographic context

Risk heat across Chowchilla and the region

Click any city to see its score

How Chowchilla compares

Risk score vs. peers, county, state, and the U.S.
Rank in Madera County
Very High
#2 of 16 cities
Rank in county, 93rd percentileBottomTop
#2 of 16 cities in Madera County for landlord eviction risk.
Rank in California
Elevated
#657 of 1,594 cities
Rank in state, 59th percentileBottomTop
#657 of 1,594 cities in California for landlord eviction risk.
vs. county · state · U.S.
Chowchilla risk score vs. county / state / U.S.Chowchilla: 6.36.3ChowchillaThis cityCounty: 5.85.8Countyavg in countyState: 7.27.2Stateavg in stateU.S.: 5.25.2U.S.national avg
Score story

Six-stop tour of the risk profile

  1. 6.3
    / 10 · ELEVATED
    The verdict

    A Elevated-tier market.

    Composite 6.3/10. Mid-range market; standard documentation usually wins. The 50-year curve shows a sharp climb.

    50-yr trend+4.7 over 50 yr
    197620012026

    Steepening since 2010 · COVID inflection visible

  2. 285d
    Typical timeline
    The money

    What renting (and evicting) looks like.

    Rent published at $1,178/mo. A contested eviction takes 285 days and costs $13,564-$33,172 per case.

    50-yr trendCalendar drag rising since '15
    197620012026

    Court-clerk data lands in the next release.

  3. 42.7%
    Renters
    The renters

    Who you'll be renting to.

    Out of 19,020 residents, 42.7% rent. 31% are spending 30%+ income on rent, 22.3% below the poverty line.

    50-yr trendRenter share rising
    197620012026

    ACS 1970-present · once the migration overlay is in.

  4. 6
    Local + regional
    The politics

    Mid-range climate. Not a coastal market.

    Local & regional political climate score 6 and 6 (GOP margin +20.8% (2024)). State climate at 6.8, a mid-range statehouse.

    50-yr trendTracks county vote margin
    197620012026

    Built on 50-yr presidential margins back to 1976.

  5. 6.8
    State politics
    The process

    Long calendar, heavy friction.

    State political climate 6.8/10 sets the legislative ceiling for landlord remedies, and it shows up in the process. Eviction process difficulty reads 6.2, housing court bias 8.1, rent-control risk 7.9. The slow part is the calendar, not the motion practice.

    50-yr trendProcess difficulty +1.2 since '00
    197620012026

    Court-clerk data lands in the next release.

  6. 8.5
    Economic stress
    The stress

    Economic pressure is the real risk.

    Economic stress: 8.5. Supply constraint: 7.8. The numbers behind those: 22.3% poverty, 9.2% unemployment, 31% of income on rent.

    50-yr trendTwo visible dips · '08 + COVID
    197620012026

    Mirrors BLS unemployment series.

US eviction landscape · timeline × all-in cost

Chowchilla sits in the slow & expensive quadrant

Bubble size = population · color = risk score
QUICK BUT COSTLY fast docket · high all-in loss SLOW & EXPENSIVE long calendar · high all-in loss QUICK & CHEAP fast docket · low all-in loss SLOW BUT CHEAP long calendar · low all-in loss 30d 50d 75d 100d 150d 200d 300d 450d $2.0k $3.0k $5.0k $7.5k $10k $15k $20k $30k EVICTION TIMELINE (DAYS) → ↑ ALL-IN COST (LOG SCALE) Fresno, CA · 279d · ~$24.4k all-in ($88/day) · score 7.1 Fresno Clovis, CA · 257d · ~$22.2k all-in ($87/day) · score 6.2 Clovis Merced, CA · 283d · ~$26.9k all-in ($95/day) · score 6.6 Merced Turlock, CA · 255d · ~$27.3k all-in ($107/day) · score 6.4 Turlock Madera, CA · 256d · ~$24.1k all-in ($94/day) · score 5.6 Madera Los Angeles, CA · 273d · ~$22.4k all-in ($82/day) · score 10 Los Angeles San Diego, CA · 277d · ~$25.9k all-in ($94/day) · score 6.4 San Diego San Jose, CA · 261d · ~$24.2k all-in ($93/day) · score 9.6 San Jose San Francisco, CA · 273d · ~$23.9k all-in ($88/day) · score 9.9 San Francisco Sacramento, CA · 281d · ~$25.0k all-in ($89/day) · score 7.6 Sacramento Houston, TX · 24d · ~$2.5k all-in ($103/day) · score 2.7 Houston Phoenix, AZ · 38d · ~$3.3k all-in ($86/day) · score 3.9 Phoenix Memphis, TN · 31d · ~$2.0k all-in ($66/day) · score 4.6 Memphis Atlanta, GA · 40d · ~$2.8k all-in ($69/day) · score 5.5 Atlanta Boston, MA · 187d · ~$20.3k all-in ($109/day) · score 6.8 Boston Chicago, IL · 109d · ~$9.0k all-in ($82/day) · score 6.3 Chicago New York, NY · 417d · ~$29.5k all-in ($71/day) · score 9.8 New York Seattle, WA · 162d · ~$12.7k all-in ($79/day) · score 6.2 Seattle Chowchilla
Chowchilla · 285d · ~$23.4k all-in ($82/day) · score 6.3 National average: 58d · $4.6k all-in Hover any bubble for stats · click to open Color: 0-4   4-7   7-10
00Overview

About eviction risk in Chowchilla, CA

Landlording in Chowchilla, California, presents an elevated-friction market where documented notices and proactive screening matter. The Eviction Risk Score is 6.3/10 (ELEVATED tier), drawn from the nine sub-axes shown above, covering rent-control exposure, eviction-process difficulty, housing-court bias, tenant-organizing strength, supply constraint, economic stress, and local, regional, and state political climate. This is not a quick-fix market: it's a Elevated-friction market where lease drafting, screening discipline, and well-documented notices materially change outcomes.

Chowchilla is a city of 19,020 residents where 42.7% of occupied units are renter-occupied, and the typical renter spends 30.6% of income on rent. At an average rent of $1,178/month, the typical renter household here spends more than the federal 30% threshold on housing, a leading indicator of payment volatility and a precondition for the kinds of tenant defenses that show up most often in housing court.

01Process

How Chowchilla eviction process actually works

Eviction process difficulty here reads 6.2/10, a number that combines statutory complexity (notice categories, just-cause rules, mandatory pre-filing disclosures) with operational realities (court calendar length and clerk responsiveness). The typical contested filing in Chowchilla closes 285 days after the initial notice. For non-payment of rent the first step is a properly-formatted, properly-served pay-or-quit notice; for material lease breaches it's a cure-or-quit; for tenancies under just-cause protection an at-fault grounds notice (or a no-fault notice with statutory relocation assistance) is required.

The slow part of Chowchilla's timeline is usually the calendar, not the motion practice. Housing court bias scores 8.1/10 here, meaning judges read borderline procedural defects in the tenant's favor more often than the national norm. The practical implication: every notice and every proof of service needs to be airtight before it gets filed.

02Cost

What it costs (and how long it takes)

An all-in eviction in Chowchilla runs $13,564 to $33,172 per case once you account for filing fees, attorney time, lost rent during pendency, sheriff lockout, and unit turnover. That range is wide because the upper bound assumes a tenant answer plus motion practice, common when housing court bias is high. The lower bound assumes a default judgment after proper service.

For landlords running the numbers on holding costs vs. cash-for-keys: if your projected timeline times your monthly rent already exceeds the high-end cost number, cash-for-keys at 1-2 months' rent is typically the economically rational choice. With 285 days of typical timeline and $1,178/month in lost rent, that crossover happens fast here.

03Operations

Security deposits, screening, and lease terms

Tenant organizing strength scores 8.3/10 in Chowchilla, and the city carries meaningful rent control exposure (7.9/10). Operations practice that survives audit in this environment looks like:

  • Screening discipline. Document income (verified at 2.5 to 3x rent), credit (with a clear minimum), and prior-tenancy reference checks, but do not screen on protected categories or source-of-income where banned. Keep a written, consistent screening criteria document for every applicant.
  • Lease specificity. Use a state-specific lease that names every term clearly: rent due date, late fees within statutory caps, deposit handling, smoke and CO disclosure, lead paint disclosure (pre-1978 stock), and a clean attorney's-fees clause.
  • Security deposit handling. Itemize deductions within the statutory window. Photograph move-in/move-out condition. In California, deposit cap and refund window are statute, so exceed them at your own risk.
  • Mid-tenancy documentation. Keep date-stamped records of every rent receipt, every habitability request, every notice served. The day you need them in court is too late to start.
04Strategy

What an everyday landlord should actually do here

If you own one to four units in Chowchilla: hire a property manager who knows the local court. The pricing differential between self-managing and hiring out is small relative to the cost of one botched eviction in a ELEVATED tier market. If you own five or more: build relationships with a local landlord-side attorney before you need one, since retainer fees are negligible compared to emergency-rate billing when an eviction is already moving.

The avoidable mistakes here are all upstream of the filing: weak screening, an informal lease, sloppy rent receipts, and notice templates pulled off the internet that don't match California's statutory language. Fix those four, and most cases settle or default. Skip them, and a $33,172 all-in fight is the realistic worst case.

04bPractical traps

Local traps to avoid in Chowchilla

Trap · AB 1482
Politically, Merced County voted Democratic by 10.6 points in 2020, a baseline that correlates with tenant-protective legislative pressure. Combined with 30.6% rent-to-income ratio, expect baseline enforcement of AB 1482 + Costa-Hawkins.
05FAQ

Frequently asked questions

Q1

What is "just cause" eviction in California?

"Just cause" eviction means you can only terminate a tenancy for specific, legally recognized reasons. These reasons fall into "at-fault" categories (like non-payment of rent, lease violations) or "no-fault" categories (like owner move-in, withdrawal from the rental market), which often require relocation assistance for the tenant. You cannot simply decide not to renew a lease without a just cause.
Q2

How can I avoid a long eviction process in Chowchilla?

The best way is through proactive tenant screening to prevent issues, clear communication with tenants, and offering "cash for keys" early if a problem arises. If you must evict, hire an experienced landlord-tenant attorney immediately after the notice period expires. Don't try to navigate the complex court system alone.
Q3

Can I raise the rent freely in Chowchilla?

No. California has statewide rent control laws (AB 1482) that limit annual rent increases to 5% plus the percentage change in the cost of living (CPI), capped at 10% total. These limits apply to most residential properties older than 15 years. Always check the current CPI and ensure your increases comply.
Q4

What if my tenant claims I didn't maintain the property?

Tenants in California have a right to a habitable living space. If a tenant withholds rent due to alleged habitability issues, they must typically notify you first and give you a reasonable time to fix the problem. If you receive such a complaint, address it promptly and document all repairs. Ignoring it can complicate an eviction case.
Q5

Is it worth appealing an eviction judgment if I lose?

Appealing an eviction judgment in California is a lengthy and expensive process with no guarantee of success. It means more attorney fees and more lost rent. Generally, for everyday landlords, it's rarely worth it unless there was a clear, significant legal error that can be easily proven. Consult with your attorney about the specific circumstances.
06Score

What this score means for landlords2

A 6.3/10 places Chowchilla in the 60th percentile of California cities on the Eviction Risk Score index. The score is the average of the nine sub-axes, all calibrated on a national 1 to 10 scale where 1 is most landlord-friendly and 10 is most tenant-protective. The 50-year reconstruction shows this score has risen sharply since 1976, a structural drift driven by court-calendar growth, rent-control adoption, and the rise of tenant-side legal aid. The trajectory matters more than the snapshot: the score is the climate, not the weather.