Neighborhood · Ranked #5,730 of 84,120 nationally

Shelltown Eviction Risk: High , San Diego

Tract 06073011801 · San Diego, CA · pop 3,497 · neighborhood within 0.6 mi

Census tract 06073011801 covers part of the Shelltown area of National City, CA, and scores 8.4/10 on landlord eviction risk. 42% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears.

Risk score

8.4

High

Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale

Household mix · 100 hh

Burdened renters 38% Stable renters 24% Owners 38%

Tract context

Occupied units1,128

Renter share61.7%

SVI overall0.96

Poverty rate22.5%

Median income$61,146

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.

Geographic context

Risk heat across San Diego and the region

Centroid at 32.6804, -117.1042 · click any tract to drill in

Why Shelltown scores 8.4

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly

Local political climate

Inherited from San Diego

6.5

Regional political climate

2024 county presidential margin

6.1

State political climate

California legislature & governorship

6.8

Economic stress

22.5% poverty · this tract

5.6

Supply constraint

$1,382 rent vs county FMR

1.0

Rent control risk

Inherited from San Diego

6.1

Eviction process difficulty

State law sets the calendar

6.5

Tenant organizing strength

Inherited from San Diego

4.5

Housing court bias

Inherited from San Diego

5.7

How Shelltown compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.

CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 96

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

99%Socioeconomic
64%Household composition
94%Racial/ethnic minority
90%Housing & transportation

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Shelltown. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

26.0%Housing insecurity
12.2%Utility-shutoff threat
33.0%Food insecurity
30.2%SNAP enrollment
15.6%Transit barriers
20.3%No health insurance
18.5%Frequent mental distress
36.6%Any disability

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Shelltown

Pulling hardest the other way is supply constraint at 1/10. Food insecurity runs 33.0% against 17.8% nationally.

Against San Diego County at 52.5%, 62% of renters here are cost-burdened. Housing insecurity runs 26.0% against 14.2% nationally. The poverty rate is 22%, which in this model reads as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment.

Well under the midpoint, court filing pressure reads 2.7/10. At $1,382 a month, rents run 18% under what the rest of National City commands.

Against the San Diego County average of 7.6, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 0.8 points. That is riskier than roughly 93% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model.

CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 9.7/10. Statewide the CA average is 7.5, so this tract runs 0.9 points hotter.

Of its three components the socioeconomic standing measure is the most pressured. Annual rent works out to 27% of average household income of $61,146.

These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.

Frequently asked

About tract 06073011801

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 06073011801?

Census tract 06073011801 in the Shelltown neighborhood scores 8.4/10 (High tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.

What is the average rent in tract 06073011801?

Median gross rent is $1,382/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 62% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What is the poverty rate in tract 06073011801?

22.5% of residents in tract 06073011801 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,497.

How socially vulnerable is tract 06073011801?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 96th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 99th, household 64th, minority 94th, housing 90th.

Is tract 06073011801 considered part of Shelltown?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 06073011801 fall within Shelltown (neighborhood centroid within 0.6 miles, OSM data).

What share of households in tract 06073011801 struggle to pay rent?

About 26.0% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 12.2% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.

How does tract 06073011801 compare to San Diego overall?

Tract 06073011801 scores 8.4/10, right in line with the parent city of San Diego at 8.6/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from San Diego eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.

Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in San Diego

Top eight tracts in San Diego ranked by composite eviction-risk score.