Census Tract · Ranked #34,332 of 84,120 nationally

Modesto Eviction Risk: Moderate

Tract 06099000403 · Stanislaus, CA · pop 4,898 · 90% of tract blocks fall in Modesto

Tract 06099000403, home to 4,898 residents in Modesto in Stanislaus County, scores 5.9/10 for landlord eviction risk. On the national scale it ranks #23,017 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty.

Rent eats 30% or more of income for 64% of renter households, a severe level, and 33% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average gross rent is $1,684 monthly, set against $121,992 in average yearly household income, roughly 17% of income at the averages. Renters make up 16% of occupied homes.

Risk score

4.4

Moderate

Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale

Household mix · 100 hh

Burdened renters 10% Stable renters 6% Owners 84%

Tract context

Occupied units1,629

Renter share15.9%

SVI overall0.58

Poverty rate2.3%

Median income$121,992

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Modesto and the region

Centroid at 37.7000, -120.9672 · click any tract to drill in

Why Modesto scores 4.4

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly

Local political climate

Inherited from Modesto

5.5

Regional political climate

2024 county presidential margin

5.0

State political climate

California legislature & governorship

6.8

Economic stress

2.3% poverty · this tract

1.0

Supply constraint

$1,684 rent vs county FMR

5.8

Rent control risk

Inherited from Modesto

7.9

Eviction process difficulty

State law sets the calendar

6.5

Tenant organizing strength

Inherited from Modesto

8.3

Housing court bias

Inherited from Modesto

7.0

How Modesto compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.

CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 58

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

28%Socioeconomic
73%Household composition
55%Racial/ethnic minority
78%Housing & transportation

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

9.9%Housing insecurity
5.1%Utility-shutoff threat
10.6%Food insecurity
9.2%SNAP enrollment
6.5%Transit barriers
7.2%No health insurance
15.8%Frequent mental distress
31.2%Any disability

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Modesto

The heaviest input here is tenant organizing strength at 8.3/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Modesto eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores about the same as the Stanislaus County average of 5.8 and in line with the California statewide average of 6.1. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.

The tract is White and Hispanic or Latino and ranks around the 58th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. That is a middle-of-the-pack reading for social vulnerability.

In CDC survey modeling, about 9.9% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 5.1% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.

For a landlord, conditions here are middle-of-the-road. Standard screening and prompt, documented notices usually keep cases short.

Frequently asked

About tract 06099000403

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 06099000403?

Census tract 06099000403 in Modesto scores 4.4/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.

What is the average rent in tract 06099000403?

Median gross rent is $1,684/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 64% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What is the poverty rate in tract 06099000403?

2.3% of residents in tract 06099000403 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,898.

How socially vulnerable is tract 06099000403?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 58th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 28th, household 73th, minority 55th, housing 78th.

What share of households in tract 06099000403 struggle to pay rent?

About 9.9% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 5.1% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.

How does tract 06099000403 compare to Modesto overall?

Tract 06099000403 scores 4.4/10, lower than the parent city of Modesto at 8.1/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Modesto eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.

Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Modesto

Top eight tracts in Modesto ranked by composite eviction-risk score.