Census Tract · Ranked #32,735 of 84,120 nationally

Modesto Eviction Risk: Moderate

Tract 06099000914 · Stanislaus, CA · pop 5,305

For landlords sizing up Modesto in Stanislaus County, census tract 06099000914 carries a moderate eviction-risk score of 5.6/10. On the national scale it ranks #31,838 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty.

Rent eats 30% or more of income for 29% of renter households, a moderate level, and 27% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average rent runs $2,325 a month against an average household income of $135,263 a year, roughly 21% of income at the averages. Renters make up 36% of occupied homes.

Risk score

4.5

Moderate

Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale

Household mix · 100 hh

Burdened renters 10% Stable renters 25% Owners 65%

Tract context

Occupied units1,746

Renter share35.6%

SVI overall0.40

Poverty rate7.0%

Median income$135,263

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Modesto and the region

Centroid at 37.6835, -120.9488 · click any tract to drill in

Why Modesto scores 4.5

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly

Local political climate

Inherited from Modesto

5.5

Regional political climate

2024 county presidential margin

5.0

State political climate

California legislature & governorship

6.8

Economic stress

7.0% poverty · this tract

1.8

Supply constraint

$2,325 rent vs county FMR

9.8

Rent control risk

Inherited from Modesto

7.9

Eviction process difficulty

State law sets the calendar

6.5

Tenant organizing strength

Inherited from Modesto

8.3

Housing court bias

Inherited from Modesto

7.0

How Modesto compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.

CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 40

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

22%Socioeconomic
77%Household composition
76%Racial/ethnic minority
30%Housing & transportation

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

12.4%Housing insecurity
6.2%Utility-shutoff threat
13.8%Food insecurity
11.2%SNAP enrollment
7.8%Transit barriers
7.8%No health insurance
16.8%Frequent mental distress
27.2%Any disability

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Modesto

The score leans hardest on supply constraint at 9.8/10. That part is specific to this tract, computed from its own rent, income, and poverty figures. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Modesto eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores about the same as the Stanislaus County average of 5.8 and below the California statewide average of 6.1. Within its own county it reads on the safer side for landlords.

In CDC survey modeling, about 12.4% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 6.2% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.

The tract is White and Asian and ranks around the 40th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. That is a middle-of-the-pack reading for social vulnerability.

For a landlord, conditions here are middle-of-the-road. Standard screening and prompt, documented notices usually keep cases short.

Frequently asked

About tract 06099000914

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 06099000914?

Census tract 06099000914 in Modesto scores 4.5/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.

What is the average rent in tract 06099000914?

Median gross rent is $2,325/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 29% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What is the poverty rate in tract 06099000914?

7.0% of residents in tract 06099000914 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 5,305.

How socially vulnerable is tract 06099000914?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 40th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 22th, household 77th, minority 76th, housing 30th.

What share of households in tract 06099000914 struggle to pay rent?

About 12.4% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 6.2% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.

How does tract 06099000914 compare to Modesto overall?

Tract 06099000914 scores 4.5/10, lower than the parent city of Modesto at 8.1/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Modesto eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.

Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Modesto

Top eight tracts in Modesto ranked by composite eviction-risk score.