Modesto Eviction Risk: Moderate

The score leans hardest on supply constraint at 9.8/10. The voucher gap is 48.5%: households holding assistance that local rents will not absorb, which surfaces as churn rather than arrears.

Average gross rent is $2,325, 38% above the Modesto average. 27% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears. Running hot, tenant-organizing strength reads 8.3/10.

Well under the midpoint, economic stress reads 1.8/10. Against the Stanislaus County average of 6.5, this tract reads safer for landlords by 1.2 points. Nationally it ranks #28,095 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty.

On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 4.6/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here. Statewide the CA average is 7.5, so this tract runs 2.2 points cooler. Of its three components the socioeconomic standing measure is the least pressured.

Annual rent works out to 21% of average household income of $135,263. 36% of occupied units are renter-occupied.

All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.