Within neighborhood
0
th percentile
Very Low
Neighborhood · Ranked #46,312 of 84,120 nationally
Casa Loma Eviction Risk: Lower , Bayshore Gardens
Tract 12081000304 · Manatee, FL · pop 3,939 · neighborhood within 0.5 mi
Census tract 12081000304 covers the Casa Loma neighborhood of Bayshore Gardens, home to 3,939 residents. For landlords it grades 5.3/10, a moderate reading. On the national scale it ranks #41,689 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty.
About 63% of renters carry a rent burden of 30% of income or higher, a severe level, and 30% are severely burdened at 50% or more. The typical renter pays about $1,673 a month while the average household earns $46,739 a year, roughly 43% of income at the averages. About 54% of occupied units are renter-occupied, a renter-majority tract.
Risk score
3.7
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 34%
Stable renters 20%
Owners 46%
Tract context
Occupied units1,438
Renter share54.2%
SVI overall1.00
Poverty rate5.8%
Median income$46,739
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
29
th percentile
Low
Within county
67
th percentile
Elevated
Within state
60
th percentile
Elevated
Geographic context
Risk heat across Bayshore Gardens and the region
Centroid at 27.4468, -82.5677 · click any tract to drill in
Why Casa Loma scores 3.7
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Bayshore Gardens
4.8
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
4.2
State political climate
Florida legislature & governorship
1.5
Economic stress
5.8% poverty · this tract
1.4
Supply constraint
$1,673 rent vs county FMR
4.1
Rent control risk
Inherited from Bayshore Gardens
8.6
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
1.3
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Bayshore Gardens
6.8
Housing court bias
Inherited from Bayshore Gardens
7.8
How Casa Loma compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 100
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 98%Socioeconomic
- 98%Household composition
- 73%Racial/ethnic minority
- 98%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 170Total filings over 4 yrs
- 9.02%Avg annual filing rate
- 11.7%Peak (2002)
- 38Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings dropped 28% over the past 4 months.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Casa Loma. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Casa Loma
The score leans hardest on rent-control risk at 8.6/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Bayshore Gardens, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.
Set against its neighbors, this tract scores about the same as the Manatee County average of 5.0 and above the Florida statewide average of 4.9. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.
The tract is White and Black and ranks around the 100th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. High vulnerability tends to track with higher eviction-filing rates when rents climb.
Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 170 eviction filings here over 4 tracked years, with about 9.0% of renter households facing a filing in a typical year. Filings peaked at 11.7% of renter households in 2002.
For a landlord, conditions here are middle-of-the-road. Standard screening and prompt, documented notices usually keep cases short.
Frequently asked
About tract 12081000304
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 12081000304?
Census tract 12081000304 in the Casa Loma neighborhood scores 3.7/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 12081000304?
Median gross rent is $1,673/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 63% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 12081000304?
5.8% of residents in tract 12081000304 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,939.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 12081000304?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 100th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 98th, household 98th, minority 73th, housing 98th.
Q5
Is tract 12081000304 considered part of Casa Loma?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 12081000304 fall within Casa Loma (neighborhood centroid within 0.5 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 12081000304?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 170 eviction filings across 4 validated years in tract 12081000304 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 9.02% of renter households, peaking at 11.7% in 2002. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
How does tract 12081000304 compare to Bayshore Gardens overall?
Tract 12081000304 scores 3.7/10, higher than the parent city of Bayshore Gardens at 2.7/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Bayshore Gardens; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Bayshore Gardens
Top eight tracts in Bayshore Gardens ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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