Within neighborhood
0
th percentile
Very Low
Neighborhood · Ranked #41,206 of 84,120 nationally
Casa Loma Eviction Risk: Moderate , Bayshore Gardens
Tract 12081000304 · Manatee, FL · pop 3,939 · neighborhood within 0.5 mi
12081000304 is a census tract in the Casa Loma area of Bayshore Gardens, FL. It scores 4.5/10 for landlords. Population here is 3,939. The severe-burden share is 30%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment.
Risk score
4.5
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 34%
Stable renters 20%
Owners 46%
Tract context
Occupied units1,438
Renter share54.2%
SVI overall1.00
Poverty rate5.8%
Median income$46,739
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
29
th percentile
Low
Within county
67
th percentile
Elevated
Within state
68
th percentile
Elevated
Geographic context
Risk heat across Bayshore Gardens and the region
Centroid at 27.4468, -82.5677 · click any tract to drill in
Why Casa Loma scores 4.5
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Bayshore Gardens
4.8
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
4.2
State political climate
Florida legislature & governorship
1.5
Economic stress
5.8% poverty · this tract
1.4
Supply constraint
$1,673 rent vs county FMR
4.1
Rent control risk
Inherited from Bayshore Gardens
8.6
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
1.3
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Bayshore Gardens
6.8
Housing court bias
Inherited from Bayshore Gardens
7.8
How Casa Loma compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 100
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 98%Socioeconomic
- 98%Household composition
- 73%Racial/ethnic minority
- 98%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 170Total filings over 4 yrs
- 9.02%Avg annual filing rate
- 11.7%Peak (2002)
- 38Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings dropped 28% over the past 4 months.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Casa Loma. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Casa Loma
Annualized rent equals 43% of average household income of $46,739, past the 30% affordability line, which thins the margin any screening standard has to work with. The main counterweight is eviction-process difficulty at 1.3/10. Running cool, economic stress reads 1.4/10.
Disability prevalence runs 47.5% against 31.5% nationally. 63% of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, higher than the Manatee County average of 53.5%. Sitting well above the midpoint, rent-regulation exposure reads 8.6/10.
Adults with no health insurance runs 25.2% against 11.3% nationally. Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 170 filings here across 4 tracked years. Average gross rent is $1,673, 11% above the Bayshore Gardens average.
Filings peaked in 2002 at 11.7% of renter households. In a typical year about 9.0% of renter households face a filing. Nationally it ranks #41,206 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty.
These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.
Frequently asked
About tract 12081000304
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 12081000304?
Census tract 12081000304 in the Casa Loma neighborhood scores 4.5/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 12081000304?
Median gross rent is $1,673/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 63% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 12081000304?
5.8% of residents in tract 12081000304 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,939.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 12081000304?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 100th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 98th, household 98th, minority 73th, housing 98th.
Q5
Is tract 12081000304 considered part of Casa Loma?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 12081000304 fall within Casa Loma (neighborhood centroid within 0.5 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 12081000304?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 170 eviction filings across 4 validated years in tract 12081000304 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 9.02% of renter households, peaking at 11.7% in 2002. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
How does tract 12081000304 compare to Bayshore Gardens overall?
Tract 12081000304 scores 4.5/10, higher than the parent city of Bayshore Gardens at 4.1/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Bayshore Gardens; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Bayshore Gardens
Top eight tracts in Bayshore Gardens ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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