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Census Tract · Ranked #37,882 of 84,120 nationally

Poinciana Eviction Risk: Moderate

Tract 12105012511 · Polk, FL · pop 5,369

With a score of 4.7/10, tract 12105012511 in Poinciana, FL reads moderate for landlord eviction risk. It is home to 5,369 residents. 37% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears.

Risk score
4.7
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 19% Stable renters 26% Owners 55%
Tract context
Occupied units1,389
Renter share44.3%
SVI overall0.37
Poverty rate22.6%
Median income$73,064

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within parent city
70 th percentile
Rank, 70th percentileLowHigh
#4 of 11 tracts In Poinciana
Elevated
Within county
76 th percentile
Rank, 76th percentileLowHigh
#43 of 174 tracts In Polk
High
Within state
72 th percentile
Rank, 72nd percentileLowHigh
#1,428 of 5,122 tracts In Florida
Elevated
National
55 th percentile
Rank, 55th percentileLowHigh
#37,882 of 84,120 tracts In U.S.
Elevated
Geographic context

Risk heat across Poinciana and the region

Centroid at 28.0780, -81.4524 · click any tract to drill in

Why Poinciana scores 4.7

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Poinciana
4.9
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
4.3
State political climate
Florida legislature & governorship
1.5
Economic stress
22.6% poverty · this tract
5.7
Supply constraint
$1,560 rent vs county FMR
6.7
Rent control risk
Inherited from Poinciana
9.2
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
1.4
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Poinciana
5.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Poinciana
7.8

How Poinciana compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Poinciana risk score vs. parent city / county / state4.7This tracttract 0125114.0Poincianaparent city3.9Countyavg tract in county4.1Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 37

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Poinciana

The score leans hardest on rent-regulation exposure at 9.2/10. On the softer side, eviction-process difficulty reads 1.4/10.

Adults with no health insurance runs 27.9% against 11.3% nationally. Well under the midpoint, state political climate reads 1.5/10.

The poverty rate is 23%. Judgments in high-poverty tracts are collectible far less often than filing counts suggest. At $1,560 a month, rents run 21% under what the rest of Poinciana commands.

The voucher gap is 16.7%: households holding assistance that local rents will not absorb, which surfaces as churn rather than arrears. Against the Polk County average of 3.9, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 0.8 points.

42% of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, below the Polk County average of 45.8%. On the national scale it lands near the 55th percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored.

On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 4.4/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here. Of its three components the housing type and transport measure is the least pressured.

Annual rent works out to 26% of average household income of $73,064. 44% of occupied units are renter-occupied.

Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.

Frequently asked

About tract 12105012511

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 12105012511?

Census tract 12105012511 in Poinciana scores 4.7/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 12105012511?

Median gross rent is $1,560/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 42% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 12105012511?

22.6% of residents in tract 12105012511 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 5,369.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 12105012511?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 37th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 60th, household 85th, minority 93th, housing 0th.
Q5

How does tract 12105012511 compare to Poinciana overall?

Tract 12105012511 scores 4.7/10, higher than the parent city of Poinciana at 4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Poinciana eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Poinciana

Top eight tracts in Poinciana ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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