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Census Tract · Ranked #34,278 of 84,120 nationally

Poinciana Eviction Risk: Moderate

Tract 12105014127 · Polk, FL · pop 7,228

Census tract 12105014127 covers part of Poinciana, FL, and scores 4.9/10 on landlord eviction risk. 64% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears.

Risk score
4.9
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 20% Stable renters 7% Owners 73%
Tract context
Occupied units2,255
Renter share27.0%
SVI overall0.77
Poverty rate19.4%
Median income$52,781

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within parent city
80 th percentile
Rank, 80th percentileLowHigh
#3 of 11 tracts In Poinciana
High
Within county
85 th percentile
Rank, 85th percentileLowHigh
#27 of 174 tracts In Polk
High
Within state
78 th percentile
Rank, 78th percentileLowHigh
#1,143 of 5,122 tracts In Florida
High
National
59 th percentile
Rank, 59th percentileLowHigh
#34,278 of 84,120 tracts In U.S.
Elevated
Geographic context

Risk heat across Poinciana and the region

Centroid at 28.0829, -81.5028 · click any tract to drill in

Why Poinciana scores 4.9

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Poinciana
4.9
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
4.3
State political climate
Florida legislature & governorship
1.5
Economic stress
19.4% poverty · this tract
4.8
Supply constraint
$1,627 rent vs county FMR
7.2
Rent control risk
Inherited from Poinciana
9.2
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
1.4
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Poinciana
5.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Poinciana
7.8

How Poinciana compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Poinciana risk score vs. parent city / county / state4.9This tracttract 0141274.0Poincianaparent city3.9Countyavg tract in county4.1Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 77

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Poinciana

Cost burden runs 75% here against 45.8% across Polk County. The dominant input is rent-regulation exposure at 9.2/10.

Set annual rent against average income of $52,781 and the ratio lands at 37%, above the conventional 30% ceiling. Running cool, eviction-process difficulty reads 1.4/10. Adults with no health insurance runs 26.5% against 11.3% nationally.

On the softer side, state political climate reads 1.5/10. The voucher gap is 21.7%: households holding assistance that local rents will not absorb, which surfaces as churn rather than arrears.

The poverty rate is 19%. Judgments in high-poverty tracts are collectible far less often than filing counts suggest. Average gross rent is $1,627, 17% below the Poinciana average.

It sits 1.0 points above the Polk County average of 3.9. Nationally it ranks #34,278 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty. Social vulnerability reads 8/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks.

Statewide the FL average is 4.1, so this tract runs 0.8 points hotter. Of its three components the household composition measure is the most pressured. 27% of occupied units are renter-occupied.

All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.

Frequently asked

About tract 12105014127

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 12105014127?

Census tract 12105014127 in Poinciana scores 4.9/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 12105014127?

Median gross rent is $1,627/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 75% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 12105014127?

19.4% of residents in tract 12105014127 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 7,228.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 12105014127?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 77th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 86th, household 96th, minority 92th, housing 15th.
Q5

How does tract 12105014127 compare to Poinciana overall?

Tract 12105014127 scores 4.9/10, higher than the parent city of Poinciana at 4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Poinciana eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Poinciana

Top eight tracts in Poinciana ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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