Elsdon Eviction Risk: Moderate , Chicago

The severe-burden share is 23%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment. On the softer side, economic stress reads 1.5/10.

Running hot, tenant-organizing strength reads 8/10. 52% of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, above the Cook County average of 45.6%. Food insecurity runs 26.8% against 17.8% nationally.

Court records carry 257 eviction filings across 15 observed years. Housing insecurity runs 22.4% against 14.2% nationally.

At $1,296 a month, rents run 10% under what the rest of Chicago commands. Filings peaked in 2009 at 3.7% of renter households.

In the 1930s the federal Home Owners' Loan Corporation graded this ground C ("Definitely Declining"). Redlining cut off mortgage credit to whole blocks for decades, and the areas graded D still carry measurably lower ownership and higher rent burden today. In a typical year about 2.4% of renter households face a filing. On the national scale it lands near the 74th percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored.

Only 25% of units are renter-occupied. Rental comparables are thin; price a renewal off the nearest genuine rental sub-market rather than off surrounding sale prices. On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 7.3/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here.

Against average income of $93,041, annual rent is just 17%.

These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.