Raynor Park Eviction Risk: Moderate , Joliet

At $648 a month, rents run 49% under what the rest of Joliet commands. Food insecurity runs 49.9% against 17.8% nationally. The poverty rate is 56%, which in this model reads as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment.

The severe-burden share is 28%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment. 86% of occupied units are rented, so comparables are plentiful and vacancy risk is low, but a mispriced renewal loses the tenant to a building nearby.

On the softer side, supply constraint reads 1/10. Inability to pay a utility bill runs 28.2% against 9.2% nationally. Utility arrears usually lead rent arrears by a month or two.

Set annual rent against average income of $22,444 and the ratio lands at 35%, above the conventional 30% ceiling. Running cool, rent-regulation exposure reads 2/10. Against the Will County average of 4.2, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 1.0 points.

This ground was mapped C ("Definitely Declining") on the 1930s HOLC security maps for Joliet. That grading determined who could get a mortgage, and its imprint on tenure and rent burden is still visible in the ACS data above. That is riskier than roughly 65% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model. Social vulnerability reads 9.7/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks.

All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.