The Island Eviction Risk: Elevated

The severe-burden share is 22%. Those renters are past the 50% mark, and they miss rent for reasons that have nothing to do with willingness to pay. What pushes the score up most is tenant-organizing strength at 8/10. On the softer side is economic stress, at 2.1/10.

Internally this is not one market. Tract scores span 5.5 to 6.6, so two buildings inside the same boundary can carry materially different risk. Running cool is supply constraint, at 2.3/10.

Court records carry 98 eviction filings across its 2 observed tracts. Average gross rent is $2,067, 13% below the Newton average of $2,370.

The worst year on record was 2014, when filings touched 1.6% of renter households. 5.1% of adults carry no health insurance against 11.3% nationally, a common route into sudden unpayable debt. The most recent observed rate, 0.7% in 2016, is well off that peak.

That places it #2 of 11 neighborhoods in Newton. The closest comparables inside the same city are Newton Highlands and Cleveland Circle. Against average income of $138,155, annual rent is only 18%, a wide affordability cushion.

Underwrite the address, not the area: with 1.1 points between its best and worst tract, the per-tract table below is the operative number. Scores move when the ACS release, the court-record feed, or the statute ledger behind them moves.