Within neighborhood
0
th percentile
Very Low
Neighborhood · Ranked #11,153 of 84,120 nationally
Morningdale Eviction Risk: Elevated , Worcester
Tract 25027730200 · Worcester County, MA · pop 6,912 · neighborhood within 1.1 mi
25027730200 is a census tract in the Morningdale area of Worcester, MA. It scores 7.3/10 for landlords. Population here is 6,912. Average gross rent is $2,019, 36% above the Worcester average.
Risk score
7.3
Elevated
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 10%
Stable renters 12%
Owners 78%
Tract context
Occupied units2,841
Renter share21.8%
SVI overall0.77
Poverty rate12.7%
Median income$81,918
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
36
th percentile
Low
Within county
76
th percentile
High
Within state
70
th percentile
Elevated
Geographic context
Risk heat across Worcester and the region
Centroid at 42.3156, -71.7805 · click any tract to drill in
Why Morningdale scores 7.3
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Worcester
7.0
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.9
State political climate
Massachusetts legislature & governorship
6.2
Economic stress
12.7% poverty · this tract
3.2
Supply constraint
$2,019 rent vs county FMR
5.9
Rent control risk
Inherited from Worcester
6.0
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
7.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Worcester
7.0
Housing court bias
Inherited from Worcester
7.0
How Morningdale compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 77
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 50%Socioeconomic
- 78%Household composition
- 56%Racial/ethnic minority
- 94%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 11Total filings over 1 yrs
- 2.19%Avg annual filing rate
- 2.2%Peak (2015)
- 11Filings in 2015 (latest validated)
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Morningdale. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 12.5%Housing insecurity
- 8.9%Utility-shutoff threat
- 15.6%Food insecurity
- 19.0%SNAP enrollment
- 8.9%Transit barriers
- 5.8%No health insurance
- 17.5%Frequent mental distress
- 31.3%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Morningdale
Against the Worcester County average of 5.8, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 1.5 points. The severe-burden share is 12%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment. The dominant input is local political climate at 7/10.
On the high side, eviction-process difficulty reads 7/10. Court records carry 11 eviction filings across 1 observed years. Sitting well above the midpoint, tenant-organizing strength reads 7/10.
Filings peaked in 2015 at 2.2% of renter households. In a typical year about 2.2% of renter households face a filing.
On the national scale it lands near the 87th percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored. Only 22% of units are renter-occupied. Rental comparables are thin; price a renewal off the nearest genuine rental sub-market rather than off surrounding sale prices.
Social vulnerability reads 8/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks. Statewide the MA average is 6.2, so this tract runs 1.1 points hotter. Of its three components the housing type and transport measure is the most pressured.
All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.
Frequently asked
About tract 25027730200
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 25027730200?
Census tract 25027730200 in the Morningdale neighborhood scores 7.3/10 (Elevated tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 25027730200?
Median gross rent is $2,019/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 45% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 25027730200?
12.7% of residents in tract 25027730200 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 6,912.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 25027730200?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 77th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 50th, household 78th, minority 56th, housing 94th.
Q5
Is tract 25027730200 considered part of Morningdale?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 25027730200 fall within Morningdale (neighborhood centroid within 1.1 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 25027730200?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 11 eviction filings across 1 validated years in tract 25027730200 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 2.19% of renter households, peaking at 2.2% in 2015. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 25027730200 struggle to pay rent?
About 12.5% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 8.9% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 25027730200 compare to Worcester overall?
Tract 25027730200 scores 7.3/10, higher than the parent city of Worcester at 6.6/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Worcester eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Worcester
Top eight tracts in Worcester ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · MA
Lincoln Square
8
/ 10 · High
Tract · MA
Main South
8
/ 10 · High
Tract · MA
Lincoln Square
8
/ 10 · High
Tract · MA
Morningdale
8
/ 10 · High
Tract · MA
Webster Square
8
/ 10 · High
Tract · MA
25027732002
8
/ 10 · High
Tract · MA
Beaver Street Historic District
8
/ 10 · High
Tract · MA
Fay Street Historic District
8
/ 10 · High
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