Outer Drive-Hayes Eviction Risk: Elevated

34.8% of adults report being unable to pay a utility bill, against a 9.2% national figure. Utility arrears usually lead rent arrears by a month or two. SNAP participation is 60.3% of households versus 15.2% nationally.

The poverty rate is 41%, which shows up in this model as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment. 30% are severely burdened, paying half their income or more in rent. That cohort has no absorption capacity for an unexpected bill, and it is where non-payment filings originate. The dominant input is economic stress at 9.2/10.

Annualized rent equals 35% of average household income here, past the 30% affordability line, which compresses the margin any screening standard has to work with. Running cool is rent-regulation exposure, at 2/10. Well under the midpoint is supply constraint, at 2.5/10.

Among the 130 mapped neighborhoods of Detroit, it ranks #3 by risk, the upper third. The closest comparables inside the same city are Fox Creek and Michigan-Martin. Social vulnerability runs high at 8.8/10, concentrating the disaster- and displacement-exposure this model treats as a lagging risk input.

Its 4 tracts score within 0 points of one another, so the area figure travels well to individual addresses. Average gross rent runs $1,033, close to the Detroit average.

With little internal variation, 6/10 is a fair proxy for any address inside the boundary. The number is rebuilt whenever its ACS, court-record, or statutory inputs change.