Duluth Eviction Risk: Moderate

Against St. Louis County at 40.0%, 69% of renters here are cost-burdened. The score leans hardest on economic stress at 10/10.

The poverty rate is 42%, which in this model reads as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment. 71% of occupied units are rented, so comparables are plentiful and vacancy risk is low, but a mispriced renewal loses the tenant to a building nearby.

At $1,350 a month, rents run 24% over what the rest of Duluth commands. Against the St. Louis County average of 4.3, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 1.4 points.

The voucher gap is 18.4%: households holding assistance that local rents will not absorb, which surfaces as churn rather than arrears. This ground was mapped C ("Definitely Declining") on the 1930s HOLC security maps for Duluth. That grading determined who could get a mortgage, and its imprint on tenure and rent burden is still visible in the ACS data above. That is riskier than roughly 74% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model.

CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 4.1/10. Statewide the MN average is 4.5, so this tract runs 1.2 points hotter. Of its three components the household composition measure is the least pressured.

Annual rent works out to 31% of average household income of $52,388.

Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.