Census Tract · Ranked #3,797 of 84,120 nationally

Elizabeth Eviction Risk: High

Tract 34039031301 · Union County, NJ · pop 3,244

With a score of 9.1/10, tract 34039031301 in Elizabeth, NJ reads high for landlord eviction risk. It is home to 3,244 residents. The severe-burden share is 41%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment.

Risk score

9.1

High

Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale

Household mix · 100 hh

Burdened renters 39% Stable renters 26% Owners 35%

Tract context

Occupied units1,132

Renter share65.5%

SVI overall0.93

Poverty rate22.5%

Median income$74,717

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Elizabeth and the region

Centroid at 40.6750, -74.1973 · click any tract to drill in

Why Elizabeth scores 9.1

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly

Local political climate

Inherited from Elizabeth

7.0

Regional political climate

2024 county presidential margin

6.8

State political climate

New Jersey legislature & governorship

6.8

Economic stress

22.5% poverty · this tract

5.6

Supply constraint

$1,697 rent vs county FMR

2.9

Rent control risk

Inherited from Elizabeth

7.5

Eviction process difficulty

State law sets the calendar

7.5

Tenant organizing strength

Inherited from Elizabeth

6.5

Housing court bias

Inherited from Elizabeth

7.0

How Elizabeth compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.

CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 93

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

98%Socioeconomic
80%Household composition
81%Racial/ethnic minority
72%Housing & transportation

Historical context · 1930s redlining

HOLC grade: C: Definitely Declining

This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade C meant mixed-race / working-class neighborhoods rated as risky. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.

0%Grade A
0%Grade B
46%Grade C
0%Grade D · redlined

Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

24.6%Housing insecurity
13.4%Utility-shutoff threat
29.8%Food insecurity
18.5%SNAP enrollment
13.8%Transit barriers
26.9%No health insurance
17.9%Frequent mental distress
31.7%Any disability

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Elizabeth

Against Union County at 44.6%, 60% of renters here are cost-burdened. It sits 2.5 points above the Union County average of 6.6. The dominant input is court filing pressure at 8.9/10.

Adults with no health insurance runs 26.9% against 11.3% nationally. 65% of occupied units are rented, so comparables are plentiful and vacancy risk is low, but a mispriced renewal loses the tenant to a building nearby. Food insecurity runs 29.8% against 17.8% nationally.

On the high side, rent-regulation exposure reads 7.5/10. The poverty rate is 22%, which in this model reads as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment.

Running hot, eviction-process difficulty reads 7.5/10. Average gross rent is $1,697, 11% above the Elizabeth average. In the 1930s the federal Home Owners' Loan Corporation graded this ground C ("Definitely Declining"). Redlining cut off mortgage credit to whole blocks for decades, and the areas graded D still carry measurably lower ownership and higher rent burden today.

These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.

Frequently asked

About tract 34039031301

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 34039031301?

Census tract 34039031301 in Elizabeth scores 9.1/10 (High tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.

What is the average rent in tract 34039031301?

Median gross rent is $1,697/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 60% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What is the poverty rate in tract 34039031301?

22.5% of residents in tract 34039031301 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,244.

How socially vulnerable is tract 34039031301?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 93th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 98th, household 80th, minority 81th, housing 72th.

What share of households in tract 34039031301 struggle to pay rent?

About 24.6% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 13.4% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.

How does tract 34039031301 compare to Elizabeth overall?

Tract 34039031301 scores 9.1/10, higher than the parent city of Elizabeth at 7.7/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Elizabeth eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.

Was tract 34039031301 historically redlined?

Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of C. 0% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.

Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Elizabeth

Top eight tracts in Elizabeth ranked by composite eviction-risk score.